000

ABNT20 KNHC 172331

TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low

pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda

have shown little change in organization since earlier today.

Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical depression or

storm is very likely to form during the next day or two while the

low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days

over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of

this system will be possible through the middle of next week while

it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western

Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

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