000

ABNT20 KNHC 010512

TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms located over the west-central Caribbean

Sea are associated with a tropical wave. A broad area of low

pressure is expected to form in a day or so over the northwest

Caribbean Sea or the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico in the vicinity

of the wave as it moves slowly west-northwestward. Conditions are

forecast to be conducive for development thereafter in that region,

and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the

system meanders. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and

western Cuba should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another tropical wave located a couple hundred miles east of the

Lesser Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized

shower activity. This disturbance is forecast to move westward

during the next several days where environmental conditions could

become a little more conducive for development over the central or

western Caribbean Sea by early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$

Forecaster Latto

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