Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Fri, Sep 18th 2020, 07:50 AM

000

ABNT20 KNHC 181150

TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane

Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical

Depression Twenty-Two, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure

located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are

becoming better organized. Earlier satellite-derived wind data

indicated that this system does not yet have a well-defined center,

but it is producing winds near tropical-storm-force to its east.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional

development during the next day or two and a tropical depression or

tropical storm is likely to form before the end of the week. This

system is forecast move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through

the weekend. For more information on this system, please see High

Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A small low pressure system located just west of the coast of

Portugal is embedded within a larger non-tropical low. Although

showers and thunderstorms associated with the smaller low are

showing signs of organization, the system will soon move inland

over Portugal and further tropical or subtropical development

is unlikely. The low is producing gale-force winds, and will likely

bring gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain to portions of

western Portugal today and tonight. For more information about

potential hazards in Portugal, please see products issued by the

Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA). For more

information about marine hazards associated with this system, see

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Post-tropical cyclone Paulette is located several hundred miles

north-northwest of the Azores. The cyclone is forecast to move

quickly southward for the next few days and then stall over

marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south or south-southwest

of the Azores by the end of the weekend. The cyclone could

subsequently redevelop tropical characteristics late this weekend or

early next week while it moves little.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of

Africa by early Saturday. Some gradual development of the system

will be possible thereafter while it moves generally

west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two are issued

under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.

Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two are issued

under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the

Atmosphere (IPMA) are available on the web at https://www.ipma.pt.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO

header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at

www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/

metarea2

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be

found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and

online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$

Forecaster Latto

Click here to read more at The National Hurricane Center

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