The new research also predicts a prolonged outbreak over a few years.

"It likely will smoulder in transmission hot spots," says WHO Africa head Matshidiso Moeti.

This patchier and slower pattern of transmission sets Africa apart from other regions, WHO experts say.

Other factors taken into account are the region's younger populations who have "benefitted from the control of communicable diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis", as well as lower mortality rates.

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