Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
000
WTNT22 KNHC 221453
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER
2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
AL122019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 61.7W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE
0SW
0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE
0SW
0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 61.7W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 61.1W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.1N 63.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE
0SW
0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 64.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE
0SW
0NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.4N 65.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE
0SW
0NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.9N 65.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE
0SW
0NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.7N 65.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE
0SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 23.4N 65.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 25.3N 65.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 61.7W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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