018

ABNT20 KNHC 210558

TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently

downgraded Tropical Storm Jerry, located more than a hundred miles

north of the northern Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward

Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers

and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are currently conducive

for some development, and a tropical depression could form on Sunday

or early next week while the system moves quickly westward to

west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing the Windward Islands on

Sunday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for

development by the middle of next week once the wave moves out of

the northeastern Caribbean Sea. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft

is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if

necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible

over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on

those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this

disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti continues

to produce only disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Due to

strong upper-level winds, significant development of this system is

not expected while it moves slowly west-northwestward during the

next couple of days. Regardless of development, locally heavy

rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba

through the weekend, potentially causing flash flooding and

mudslides in areas of high terrain.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa

by Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive

for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is

likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across

the eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$

Forecaster Stewart

Click here to read more at The National Hurricane Center