Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

000
WTNT41 KNHC 211435
TCDAT1

Subtropical Depression Andrea Discussion Number

4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL012019
1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019

As expected, Andrea is likely to be a short-lived event. The
cyclone's cloud pattern has continued to degrade, and Andrea is now
essentially devoid of deep convection. In fact, at first glance,
the upper-level low to the southwest of the center appears to be
the most dominant feature. Based on the lack of convection and a
buoy observation not far to the north of Andrea, the system is
being downgraded to a subtropical depression. Since the cyclone is
expected to remain under the influence of the upper low and in and
environment of dry mid-level air for the next day or so, Andrea is
likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in a day or
less.

The system has moved a little more to the north than previously
estimated and the initial motion is 360/7. Upper-level westerlies
should cause the cyclone to turn eastward in 12-24 hours until
dissipation. The official track forecast is similar to but a
little slower than the dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 30.8N 69.2W

30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 31.5N 67.8W

30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1200Z 31.7N 66.0W

25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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