264

ABNT20 KNHC 251834

TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie, located a little more than 1000 miles

west-southwest of the Azores.

A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of Cape

Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce disorganized showers

and a few thunderstorms. Satellite and surface data indicate that

the circulation of the low remains elongated and not well defined.

However, this system could still become a tropical depression this

afternoon or tonight while it moves slowly northwestward to

northward. By Wednesday, additional development appears unlikely

due to strong upper-level winds while the system moves northward and

north-northeastward near the eastern United States coast. An Air

Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate

the system later this afternoon. Regardless of development, this

system is likely to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across

portions of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina

this afternoon and tonight. In addition, dangerous surf conditions

and rip currents are expected along portions of the North Carolina

coast today. For more information, please see products from your

local National Weather Service office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

The remnants of Kirk are located more than 800 miles east of the

Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph.

This system continues to produce a large area of showers and

thunderstorms, along with winds to near gale force on its north

side. Although satellite data indicate that the system still lacks

a closed circulation, this disturbance could still redevelop into a

tropical cyclone during the next day or two before it moves into an

area of highly unfavorable upper-level winds as it approaches the

Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should

monitor the progress of this disturbance as gusty winds and locally

heavy rains are likely over the next couple of days even if the

system does not redevelop into a tropical cyclone. For more

information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the

National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie is forecast to meander over the central

Atlantic for the next day or so. By Thursday or Friday, Leslie is

expected to reacquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while

the cyclone moves slowly eastward to east-northeastward over the

north-central Atlantic. For more information on this system, see

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be

found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and

on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

Click here to read more at The National Hurricane Center