000

ABNT20 KNHC 251131

TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

730 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the low

pressure system located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just

east of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has become better defined

overnight, and thunderstorm activity has also increased and become

better organized. Environmental conditions are forecast to steadily

become more conducive for development, and a subtropical or tropical

depression or storm is likely to form by Saturday over the

northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to

investigate the low this afternoon.

Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much

of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. This

system could also bring tropical-storm-force winds and storm surge

to portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late this weekend or early

next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily

increase along the Gulf Coast from Florida westward to Louisiana

over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on these

threats, please see products issued by your local weather office,

and see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service

for information on gale warnings associated with this system. The

next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued

by 200 PM EDT today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be

found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and

the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$

Forecaster Stewart

Click here to read more at The National Hurricane Center