Dodging the bullet

Mon, Sep 11th 2017, 09:20 AM

On this day in 1941, construction commenced on the Pentagon, the world's largest office building that headquarters the four branches of the American military forces. Sixty years, to the day after the commencement of its construction, on September 11, 2001, shortly after terrorists flew hijacked commercial airliners into New York City's World Trade Center, another hijacked plane struck the Pentagon, killing 189 people and damaging roughly one third of the building. Today, memorial moments will mark that fateful day in American history.
Today will also mark another momentous occasion: the passage of the most powerful Atlantic hurricane, whose name, Irma, will be fixed in the minds of millions for many years to come. Hurricane Irma, which spent most of its sojourn through the Caribbean as a powerful Category 5 hurricane, wreaked havoc on several small, low-lying islands, obliviously obliterating the island of Barbuda, and unleashing untold damage on other Caribbean islands.
At least 20 people are believed to have been killed as the storm ravaged the Caribbean, including three people on the islands of Antigua, Barbuda and the Dutch side of St. Martin, along with four in the U.S. Virgin Islands and nine on the French side of St. Martin and St. Bart's. The Turks and Caicos Islands have reported considerable infrastructural and structural damage, although, at the time of this writing, no casualties were reported.
Hurricane Irma pounded the northern coast of Cuba and made a northerly turn to Florida, bypassing most of the islands of the central and northern Bahamas. Irma made landfall in the Florida Keys as a Category 4 hurricane. The more populated islands of The Bahamas were spared Irma's ferocious onslaught. Those islands experienced tropical storm conditions with winds that did not exceed 73 miles per hour.
Therefore, this week, we would like to Consider this... Notwithstanding the damage to some of our Family Islands in the southeast Bahamas, have most of the Bahama islands miraculously and thankfully dodged the bullet of the hurricane known as Irma?

Excellent preparations
The Bahamas government has admirably managed this crisis and should be commended for the spectacular and repeated warnings that it gave to the population in advance of Hurricane Irma. The essential organs of state, including the National Emergency Management Administration (NEMA), the Royal Bahamas Police and Defence Forces, as well as The Bahamas Department of Meteorology, moved rapidly and decisively to prepare the population for Hurricane Irma.
Early in the week, and for the first time in Bahamian history, the government orchestrated the evacuation of hundreds of persons from the southern islands that lay in Irma's path. The government accomplished this by deploying the national flag carrier, Bahamasair, and soliciting the magnanimous assistance of several private airlines that airlifted approximately 1,200 people to the capital city of Nassau on the island of New Providence. Many of the evacuees sought refuge in government-designated and church-owned hurricane shelters, while others found safe haven with friends and family here in the capital.
The government's foresight and decisive action should be credited and commended for possibly saving the lives of many persons who lived in Irma's deadly path in our southern Family Islands.
In addition, the government provided frequent updates and advisories concerning the hurricane's potential threat to the more populated islands of The Bahamas. Fully aware of the potential devastation that could result from this killer storm, the government strongly admonished residents in populated centers about Irma's potential devastation. Most of the residents of the islands throughout the archipelago heeded the government's warnings and seriously prepared for Irma's arrival.
We should not underestimate the fact that, in The Bahamas, we have developed a culturally astute awareness of the danger that could result if adequate preparations are not undertaken. Bahamians fully appreciate that we live in the hurricane belt, that we have witnessed firsthand the destructive forces of hurricanes and that we have constructed our buildings to withstand the onslaught of such destructive storms.
In addition, over the last two years, we experienced the wrath that was unleashed by Hurricanes Joaquin and Matthew and witnessed Hurricane Harvey's impact on our neighbors in Texas just last month.

Forecasting Irma's path
Considerable credit should also be given to the forecasting models that project the path of hurricanes. Very early in the process, both United States and Bahamian weather forecasters provided timely updates about Hurricane Irma's likely path. The forecasts that were employed by the American and European predictive hurricane models provided extremely accurate forecasts regarding Hurricane Irma's speed, intensity, direction and the islands that would likely be affected.
Other computer models are accessible to virtually anyone with a computer and the Internet. Using a number of online predictive hurricane models, notably Windy.com and Stormpulse.com, persons could easily track the hurricanes' trajectory in real time. These on-line computer models provide enormous assistance in preparing for hurricanes.

Dodging Irma's bullet
As the weekend approached, hurricane warnings were issued for the central and northern Bahamas, which meant that Hurricane Irma could affect the islands of New Providence, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama, Abaco and Bimini. Because of the threat to the island of Bimini, which is closely situated to Florida, The Bahamas government facilitated the evacuation of several hundred individuals from that island.
On Friday afternoon, given Irma's trajectory, although hurricane warnings were issued for the northern islands of The Bahamas, many persons felt that we would likely experience only tropical storm conditions and would not receive a direct hit from Irma's fury.
For the first time in a week, Bahamians on those islands collectively breathed a sigh of relief, optimistically hopeful that the devastating effects of the hurricane would pass by with only intense winds, considerable rain and possibly some storm surge. It seemed, for the first time during Irma's existence, that we would dodge the bullet.

Our northern neighbors
As Friday evening approached, it became crystal clear that our neighbors in Florida would be visited by Irma, most likely as an extremely powerful and potentially devastating Category 4 hurricane. Mandatory evacuation orders were issued by authorities for the residents of the Florida Keys as well as for persons living near coastal areas in south and central Florida. Many of the residents of South Florida heeded the advice of the authorities to evacuate low-lying, coastal areas and to prepare for the worst of Hurricane Irma.
Given Irma's size and strength, the entire area of south Florida and much of the state, will be adversely affected, including both east and west coast residents. Forecasters predicted that Hurricane Irma would traverse the entire state, potentially resulting in enormous property damage. Many Bahamians prayed that there would be no loss of life.

Conclusion
The resulting episodic events and experiences of the countries of the Caribbean and parts of the United States that were affected by Hurricane Irma will persist in the memories of millions for many years to come.
As we remember the diabolic events of September 11, 2001, we will also recall that this week will mark another momentous milestone in the annals of Atlantic hurricane history. This is the first time that three powerful hurricanes have simultaneously developed in the Atlantic. Hurricanes Irma, Katia (near Mexico) and Jose, which is predicted to visit some of the same islands that were affected by Irma, will be indelibly etched in the minds and hearts of millions who were affected by these enormous hurricanes.
Yet another potential storm system now seems to be developing in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
The Bahamas has much for which to be thankful. We are only in the middle of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will not end until November 30. For the moment, however, we seem to have providentially dodged the bullet of Hurricane Irma. And for that we must give God thanks and praise. We must be eternally grateful.

o Philip C. Galanis is the managing partner of HLB Galanis and Co., Chartered Accountants, Forensic & Litigation Support Services. He served 15 years in Parliament. Please send your comments to pgalanis@gmail.com.

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