Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017
000WTNT31 KNHC 071451TCPAT1

BULLETINHurricane Irma Advisory Number  34NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
AL1120171100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA HEADING FOR THE TURKS ANDCAICOS ISLANDS......HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OFSOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...20.4N 69.7WABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLICABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLANDMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula fromJupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach,including the Florida Keys.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida peninsula fromJupiter Inlet southward and around the peninsula to Bonita Beach,including the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay.

The government of Cuba has extended the Tropical Storm Warning toVilla Clara province.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to BonitaBeach* Florida Keys
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border withHaiti* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to LeMole St. Nicholas* Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands* Central Bahamas* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to BonitaBeach* Florida Keys* Lake Okeechobee* Florida Bay* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to thesouthern border with Haiti* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince* Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Camaguey, Ciegode Avila, Sancti Spiritus and Villa Clara.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from thecoastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National WeatherService Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available athurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expectedsomewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life andproperty should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hoursbefore the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-forcewinds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult ordangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well asCuba and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the UnitedStates, including possible inland watches and warnings, pleasemonitor products issued by your local National Weather Serviceforecast office. For storm information specific to your area outsidethe United States, please monitor products issued by your nationalmeteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma waslocated near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 69.7 West. Irma ismoving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and thisgeneral motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forwardspeed for the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the eyeof Irma should continue to move just north of the coast ofHispaniola today, be near the Turks and Caicos and southeasternBahamas by this evening, and then be near the central Bahamas byFriday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with highergusts.  Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-SimpsonHurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likelyduring the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain apowerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple ofdays.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from thecenter and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles(295 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 921mb (27.20 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and thetide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded byrising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water isexpected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peaksurge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas ofonshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large anddestructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relativetiming of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly overshort distances.  For information specific to your area, please seeproducts issued by your local National Weather Service forecastoffice.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breakingwaves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by thefollowing amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to thenorth of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will beaccompanied by large and destructive waves.

Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ftSoutheastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ftNorthwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ftNorthern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ftNorthern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ftNorthern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

Water levels around Puerto Rico should subside today.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within thehurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti today.Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the southeasternBahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later today with tropicalstorm conditions expected within the next several hours.  Theseconditions will spread into the central Bahamas by tonight or earlyFriday.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within thewatch area in Cuba by Friday.  Tropical storm conditions areexpected to begin within the warning area in Cuba tonight.Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Fridaynight and Saturday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rainaccumulations through Saturday evening:

Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inchesMuch of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated20 inchesAndros Island and Bimini, Bahamas...12 to 16 inches, isolated 25inchesNorthern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches,isolated 15 inchesSouthern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti...2 to 5 inchesEastern and central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inchesSoutheast Florida and the upper Florida Keys...8 to 12 inches,isolated 20 inchesLower Florida Keys...2 to 5 inches

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floodsand mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting the northern LeewardIslands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas,the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the DominicanRepublic, and should start affecting portions of the southeastcoast of the United States later today and tonight.  These swellsare likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currentconditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

Forecaster Avila

 

Click here to read more at The National Hurricane Center