"Every time we go into the voting booth, we are choosing the moral and spiritual direction of our nation. That is a privilege and responsibility that should not be abdicated."
- Robert Jeffress

The 2017 general election campaign is now in full swing. The advanced poll will be held in two days and the general election is just nine days away on May 10.
Last week, we reviewed voter sentiment and the people's general attitude toward the impending plebiscite. We discussed how social media is affecting the tone and tenor of the election campaign. We also observed that the voter today is more demanding, discerning and less loyal to a particular party and, instead, places greater emphasis on assessing the candidates who are offering for election, rather than totally focusing on the preeminence of the party leaders.
Therefore, this week, we would like to Consider this... Which races should we closely watch during this election campaign?

Selecting the candidates this election cycle will be one of the most hotly contested, with considerable focus placed on specific candidates. But, first, what is the process by which candidates are selected?
Political parties utilize their respective candidates committees to select their standard-bearers. Prospective or 'possible, potential candidates' who are interested in seeking a nomination submit letters of interest in running for office, often indicating the constituency that they would like to contest. Some possible potentials do not specifically identify a constituency, but inform the party that they are prepared to offer as its standard-bearer in whichever constituency the party feels that the candidate can best serve.
Applicants are interviewed by the candidates committee, which ultimately selects the candidate, sometimes on the recommendation of the constituency branch, and sometimes despite such recommendations. Oftentimes, powerful forces on the candidates committee or the party leadership, for their own reasons, will impose their will on the members of the candidates committee, who invariably acquiesce to the omnipotence of such forces. Candidates ratified by the parties' National General Council thus become that party's official standard-bearer in the pending general election.

Races to watch
There are several races to closely watch in the upcoming battle. We will review the contests in Long Island, North Andros and the Berry Islands and Free Town.

Long Island
Long Island poses an interesting prospect for the candidates who are running primarily a three-way race between the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP), the Free National Movement (FNM) and the independent candidate and former Cabinet minister, Loretta Butler-Turner, the outgoing leader of the Official Opposition.
The battle lines are distinctly drawn between divergent former opposition forces. The outcome of that contest will clearly indicate whether Butler-Turner's antics of the past year -- namely the dethroning of then leader of the opposition and sitting FNM Leader Dr. Hubert Minnis -- will be sanctioned by a largely FNM-leaning electorate on Long Island.
Will Butler-Turner garner sufficient votes to vindicate her for what many Bahamians are still trying to determine was the end-game of the dissidents who lost confidence in their leader, sufficiently so to have him removed as their Parliamentary leader and replaced by Butler-Turner?
Will the even more confusing Senate appointments significantly impact what the electorate will have to say on Election Day about Butler-Turner's judgment regarding such decisions?
Finally, will the two major opposition forces so deeply divide their supporters that, for the first time in decades, Long Island will be represented by the PLP? We believe that Butler-Turner's political future will be determined by this election.

North Andros and the Berry Islands
North Andros and the Berry Islands (North Andros) will also be an interesting race to watch for similar reasons.
Like Long Island, North Andros voters are faced with an independent candidate: Vincent Peet, former PLP member of Parliament for that constituency and former Cabinet minister in the Pindling and Christie administrations. This is a particularly important race because Peet was once Christie's most loyal and ardent supporter. But something went woefully wrong. Now Peet is contesting not only against his former leader but also against another ardent Christie loyalist and friend, the sitting MP and Cabinet minister, Dr. Perry Gomez. The FNM has also fielded a candidate in this race, which would have been hotly contested even without the Peet factor.
It should be remembered that, in the last election, the PLP won North Andros by a razor-thin majority. This race raises some very interesting questions that will be answered on Election Day. How is the PLP incumbent viewed by the electorate? Has his support grown over the past five years? Will he be able to hold the seat, notwithstanding his miniscule majority in 2012?
Or will the intensity of this impending battle irreparably and irreversibly impair the PLP support-base, allowing the FNM candidate to slip in through the crevice created by competing former Cabinet contestants? This race will be exciting to watch on election night.

Free Town
The race in Free Town will also spur considerable excitement on Election Day. This contest is really between the PLP and the FNM candidates, Wayne Munroe and Dionisio D'Aguilar, respectively.
Both candidates have high public profiles, both are successful in their respective businesses, both have ginormous egos, believing that they possess the solutions to all of our problems.
Munroe has three obstacles to overcome if he is going to win this seat. First, he must garner the supporters of the former PLP candidate, Frank Smith, following an acrimoniously fought nomination battle in that constituency. Some of Mr. Smith's supporters still look askance at how their man was treated by the PLP and are not happy with the current standard-bearer.
Secondly, having secured the PLP nomination, Munroe must persuade PLP supporters that he truly supports the party's philosophy, having run for the DNA in the last election. PLP leaders who did not listen to the rank and file and stalwarts regretfully recall how Dr. Andre Rollins and Renward Wells bitterly turned against the PLP and defected to the FNM after being nominated and elected as PLP standard-bearers, over the thunderous protestations of PLP stalwarts who were eventually vindicated for their stance about nominating persons who were not truly devoted to the philosophy of the PLP.
Finally, Munroe, a rugged individualist, with strong, personal positions on many issues, must persuade PLP voters that he is a team-player, particularly having spoken so disparagingly of Christie in the past.
The test for D'Aguilar, the FNM challenger, is whether he will be able to persuade voters in the newly-configured constituency to support him. When he initially decided to run, D'Aguilar believed that he would be given the relatively safe seat of Montagu. However, the boundaries of that constituency have been redrawn, removing several of the safer polling divisions from Montagu into the already safe FNM-dominated St. Anne's. Hence, the renamed Free Town is a shadow of its former Montagu incarnation, making it more difficult for the FNM to win.
The other challenge that D'Aguilar has is his ability able to genuinely connect with constituents and to inspire them to vote for him, a challenge that many persons wonder if he has the capacity to do. Time will tell. Finally, D'Aguilar has to satisfactorily explain what transpired in his business dealings with the Customs Department.

Conclusion
There are other constituencies that will be real nail-biters right up to Election Day, which time will not allow us to cover in this article, such as Bamboo Town and Carmichael, just to mention a few.
We are nine days away from the 2017 general election and it is anyone's guess who will emerge victorious. Notwithstanding the confidence in victory that each of the parties are boasting about, this race is literally too close to call in many constituencies.
Next week, as the election clock winds down, we will review the leaders of the three major parties to determine whether more light might be shed on who will survive and who will succumb, indicating what our next five years might look like.

o Philip C. Galanis is the managing partner of HLB Galanis and Co., Chartered Accountants, Forensic & Litigation Support Services. He served 15 years in Parliament. Please send your comments to pgalanis@gmail.com.

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