Dr. Hubert Minnis, leader of the Free National Movement (FNM), is not a compelling politician. Compared to Hubert Ingraham, his predecessor, he is weak. This might explain why he distanced himself from Ingraham in the first place; he wanted to erase Ingraham's appeal from the memories of the people he had to lead. Minnis' deficiencies notwithstanding, it is a mistake for his opponents to adopt as a strategy making him the primary political target. This election is not principally about the maximum leadership of political parties; rather, it is chiefly about the enduring hardship of thousands of people in this country, and what, rather than who, can change their circumstances. Bahamians want a change in their country for the better, and they may take something, like a change in government, over someone, like a flawed leader, to bring that change, even if they are one and the same.
In the 2012 general election, Bahamians began to place less importance on their love affair with the maximum leader. In that election, the FNM made its mean pitch about leadership, while the PLP, with a less compelling leader, made its primary pitch about its team. Perry Christie, as leader of the opposition, was heavily criticized by the FNM and its team as indecisive, "all talk, no action" and unserious. Heading into the elections, the FNM focused on the strength of Hubert Ingraham, whose leadership of the party since 1990 had paid great dividends for it, with three election victories in four. It did not work. The FNM was soundly defeated by the PLP.
Truth be told, by 2012, both Perry Christie and Hubert Ingraham were less imposing figures, but Ingraham had been at the helm of the country for three terms non-consecutively already, and thus, was more the establishment than Christie. Also, Ingraham's authoritative style, in contrast to the more laisser-faire style of Christie, was wearing on a significant portion of the population. The PLP also helped itself by nominating attractive new and young candidates to appeal to younger voters who had heard the complaining about both the older leaders and the established parties from their parents. These factors, combined with an energetic, fresh DNA with an attractive and charismatic leader in Branville McCartney were the perfect ingredients to unseat the FNM.
In 2012, Christie's deficiencies as a leader were well known, but they did not matter. They were highlighted extensively by the FNM, but the voters ignored all the noise about them. Why? They were not looking anymore for a maximum leader; they were looking for a different life, a better life. The PLP, as a team, promised them that different and better life. They promised thousands of jobs, lower crime, lower national debt and better government. They promised that it was not about the leader, but the team. They promised that rather than be the future, Christie would be a bridge to it. It worked. The PLP won the election and has been governing now for the past five years.
What was true in 2012 is more so in 2017. Even as many voters would have loved to see Hubert Ingraham or a Hubert Ingraham-type at the helm of the FNM party to boost its chance of victory, they are so focused on a different and better life that the deficiencies of Hubert Minnis are not the principal impediment to the party being elected next time. There are voters, including FNMs of longstanding, who do hesitate about voting for the FNM because of Minnis' weaknesses, handling of the party and insecurities, but when viewed against the realities of the Bahamian economy, crime, perceived corruption and government missteps, Minnis' oddities seem less imposing. Minnis is a story in this upcoming election, but not the story. The PLP seems poised to repeat the mistake made by the FNM in 2012, making leadership the issue, when the main story is quite different.
The story of this election will be based on the prevailing sluggishness of our economy and the high unemployment, low business profitability and social dislocation it has caused. This election is grounded in an apparent unabated rise in crime, as reflected by the large number and callous nature of murders that have taken place over the years. This election will tell the story of increased taxes, but a worsened fiscal state. The story of this election will tell the feeling that the country is simply on the wrong track. Making Minnis a principal target does not explain these realities, nor does it provide a prescription for it. The question for voters is 'What will cure this situation for us?'
Invariably voters will blame the PLP for the present state of things. It is the nature of things. You sit at the helm, you take the credit for the good and you get blamed for the bad. Been there, done that and wrote the story. What remains to be seen is how many voters will blame the party, especially those who voted for it last time. The PLP's track record may hinder, but does not have to cripple that party in persuading voters that it can cure the situation. It is a hard case, but not impossible; especially if the FNM and DNA are seen as less persuasive.
This much is certain: the victor in this election will be the party that makes the most compelling case for being able to change the circumstances that voters face today. This is an uphill journey for the PLP as the incumbent. It is a less steep, but steep nonetheless, climb for the FNM; contrary to Minnis' belief, even if he has no history as a non-career politician, the FNM has a history as a mature political party, and it was only removed from office five years ago when he was a senior member of its cabinet. The DNA would have had the easier time of persuading voters, but needs a weightier platform, a leader seen as more substantive and an elevated profile among the electorate.
Focusing on the issues and the people seeking to have them addressed is the strategy that will win this election. Focusing on Minnis is not. That was the mistake the FNM made in 2012 and the one the PLP seems set to make in 2017.

o Zhivargo Laing is a Bahamian economic consultant and former Cabinet minister who represented the Marco City constituency in the House of Assembly.

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