With such an unbelievable number of entertainment options in the country this weekend, you couldn't be faulted for forgetting that it's also a big weekend in Hollywood -- the biggest in fact: the 89th annual Academy Awards will be handed out on Sunday.
In some years, there are no real surprises, with the awards falling in line with other award shows or predictions. This year, the potential for shockers and upsets seems greater than at any time in recent memory. Nonetheless, for the fourth year in the row, I will seek to predict the Academy Award winners.
This year was a little bit easier than in years past. Of the nine films nominated, seven of these movies played in The Bahamas, either in wide release in local cinemas -- "Arrival", "Fences", "Hacksaw Ridge", "Hidden Fences", and "La La Land" -- or in limited release at film festivals -- "Moonlight" and "Lion". Only "Hell or High Water" and "Manchester by the Sea" have yet to play here for some unexplained reasons.
When it comes to the acting categories, there are again a few films that weren't nominated for Best Picture that never played here. Thankfully, some of these are already available with "Video on Demand" services or have been released on DVD. To see the others, one has to get creative.
Despite these challenges, I've managed to see all of the movies nominated for Best Picture and all those with acting nominations. I will present my personal favorites or what/who should win in each of the major categories, and also what/who I believe is most likely to win, taking into account the politics of the Academy and the psyche of the Academy voters. And sometimes they actually all align.
We'll start with Best Picture, and then go through this year's easiest to predict categories (Supporting Actress and Lead Actress) to the most unpredictable (Best Supporting Actor, Lead Actor and Best Director).
Once again, I had considered the writing categories. But I'll leave that for now. Suffice it to say, if I had to predict winners, I'd say the race is between "Manchester by the Sea", "Hell or High Water" and "La La Land" for Best Original Screenplay, and for Best Adapted Screenplay, it will come down to a battle between "Moonlight" and "Hidden Figures".
Next week, we'll see just how well I did with my picks! And you can email me your predictions at dwight@nasguard.com.
I've also compiled a list of my picks for the best movies of 2016 and the year's worst movies (there might have been some even worse, but I refused to see them).

Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Once again, let me say how very sad it is that "Hell or High Water" and "Manchester by the Sea" -- two of the best movies of the year -- have not been shown in wide release here.
Also disappointing is what has been left off this list. "Nocturnal Animals" should have been nominated in this category.
The other films that did get nominated are all hard to forget. "Lion" is touching and powerful. "Arrival" is a beautiful film that feels let down by a perplexing ending.
"Hidden Figures" is a feel-good and inspiring tale, and harkening back to a time when nothing seemed impossible for the United States of America (USA). At a time when there's so much talk about the country losing its way, and after years of "#OscarsSoWhite" -- politically this could be the film that would make everybody feel like a winner.
But it appears that this category this year comes down to "Moonlight" and "La La Land". The latter is an-often cheesy throwback to the Golden Age of Hollywood, when happy-feely musicals were king. You either really love "La La Land" or you don't. But the film is about Hollywood, and there are few things Hollywood loves more than celebrating itself.
On the other hand, "Moonlight" is so controversial on so many levels, touching on so many often-taboo subjects -- homosexuality, bullying, drug abuse. Like "Brokeback Mountain" it will likely never play in wide-release in theaters in The Bahamas.
But beyond the subject matter, it is a subtly stylish work-of-art, with cinematography, soundtrack, and performances that standout among this group.
I predict we are looking at a split here, and that these two films will split Best Director and Best Picture, i.e., if "La La Land wins Best Director, look for "Moonlight" to win Best picture and vice versa.
Predicting which one will get which is the tricky part. I wouldn't be shocked at all if "La La Land" were to win, but I'll go out on a limb and predict the Academy will award Damien Chazelle for his bold directing on "La La Land" which would mean "Moonlight" could eke out a win as Best Picture.

My personal favorite: "Moonlight"
What will win: "Moonlight"

Actress in a Supporting Role
Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

No need for any long discussion here. This has been a foregone conclusion from the day "Fences" premiered in theaters: Viola Davis will finally win an Oscar on Sunday.
Never mind that this role was strong enough to be in the Leading Actress category, Davis delivers one of the best performances of the year in any category.
In any other year, any one of these actresses -- particularly Williams and Spencer -- would have likely won. But with Spencer and Kidman already being Oscar winners, in addition to two previous nominations and a stellar body of work for Davis, it would be the biggest shocker in decades if the "How to Get Away with Murder" star doesn't win -- especially seeing as she's won every other single major award in this category.

My personal favorite: Viola Davis ("Fences")
Who will win: Viola Davis ("Fences")

Actress in a Leading Role
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Ruth Negga (Loving)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

This is the year's most bizarre category. Only one performance here (Emma Stone's) is associated with a film up for Best Picture. Contrast that to the Leading Actor group, with four of these actors headlining four of the nine films in the Best Picture category.
What does that say about the roles women are playing in Hollywood? That's perhaps a debate for another day.
But in any event, Amy Adams' absence from this list is surprising. Some would say her performance in "Arrival" was worthy of a nomination. But I believe her role in the "Nocturnal Animals" was more interesting and nuanced.
I'm actually puzzled by Negga's inclusion. "Loving," about an interracial couple in 1958 threatened with imprisonment and banishment in Virginia, is an important and well-meaning story, but hopelessly dull. That unfortunately also describes the performance.
Streep is always amazing. And with more Oscar nominations than any actor ever, I fully expect this award will be named in her honor soon.
However, the spotlight will be on the three other actresses. Stone's exuberance as she sings and dances through the least onerous role here could help her standout among voters.
More likely, though, the two most complex performances will be getting the attention. Huppert is quite a sight to behold in a wild role in the wacky French film "Elle". Incredibly entertaining, the subject matter is shocking and disturbing, with depictions of rape that would make most people extremely uncomfortable. It is a film so outrageous that it makes "Fifty Shades of Grey" seem like it could play at a children's matinee!!
Dealing with rape, infidelity, stalkers, May-December relationships, workplace drama, daughter-mother drama, mother-son drama, baby mama drama, the script throws every possible scenario at Huppert except alien-abduction. Although, you may wonder if her character is indeed an alien from another planet the way she handles some of these situations. You're likely to enjoy the movie and Huppert's performance, but you may hate yourself for it. Will it be too much for Academy voters?
Instead, I suspect Portman is on her way to a second Oscar win for the also flawed film, "Jackie". Portman portrays an overwhelmed and unhinged U.S. First Lady Jacqueline Kennedy. The movie hops back and forth between at least three or four periods in time -- just before and just after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy.
The film is dreary and bleak, and Portman plays Jackie as the most tortured woman in the history of the world. I can't recall seeing so much continuous pain in one movie. Portman is in nearly every single scene, and turns the emotional vise tighter and tighter with each successive frame. If you can actually make it through to the end, you may agree that Portman deserves an award for at least something.
My personal favorite: Isabelle Huppert ("Elle")
Who will win: Natalie Portman ("Jackie")

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Casey Affleck (Casey Affleck)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (Fences)

This one is tough. None of these would be a bad choice, and there are good reasons for any one of them to win.
Gosling's singing and learning to play like a jazz pianist deserves an award for at least the effort; I was also blown away by Mortensen ... and especially Garfield, both of whom delivered career-defining/redefining performances.
But the momentum has been behind Casey Affleck, though Washington scored an upset at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. I do believe "Fences" is one of Washington's best performances. Yes, the movie is a little too much like a stage play, and people don't talk like this in real life, but Washington dominates the screen.
Affleck, however, has a more multifaceted role, as he is essentially playing two versions of his character -- a happy man in flashbacks, and a man coping with a horrible tragedy. The skillfully written and produced "Manchester by the Sea" allows Affleck to waft between intense drama and lighter moments. It is an amazingly subdued yet intense contrast to Washington's bombastic performance.
My personal favorite: Casey Affleck ("Manchester by the Sea")
Who will win: Casey Affleck ("Manchester by the Sea")

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

What an exciting category! This one could go anyway.
Least likely to win is Patel, especially as his young co-star Sunny Pawar, who was snubbed, delivers the most memorable performance in "Lion".
Ali has been winning awards left right and center. I've seen "Moonlight" twice, and the second time around reveals even greater complexities about this role and his performance.
But if there were any category that was likely to see an upset, it would be this one.
Shannon is playing the type of role that last year helped Mark Rylance in "Bridge of Spies" come out of nowhere to win in this same category last year.
Shannon's role as a detective in Texas is very similar to the sheriff in Texas played by Jeff Bridges, who steals every single scene in "Hell or High Water". Just listening to his lines in an audio book would make for one entertaining drive to work each day.
The greatest scene-stealer of all, however, is young Lucas Hedges in "Manchester by the Sea". Bridges and Hedges are my two favorite performances in this category. I can't pick a winner between those two.
Nevertheless, the smart money would be on Ali. But it really could go any way.
My personal favorite: [tie] Jeff Bridges ("Hell or High Water") and Lucas Hedges ("Manchester by the Sea")
Who will win: Mahershala Ali ("Moonlight")

Directing
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)

This one is the toughest to predict.
I'm very pleased to see Mel Gibson here. "Hacksaw Ridge" is one of the most violent movies of the year. But it is unmistakably a work of art. Just shy of being a horror movie, with intestines and brains splattering everywhere, war films have arguably never been so beautifully choreographed.
Ultimately, the film may be too gross for the Academy, and Hollywood may still not be ready to heap praise on the controversial Gibson.
So, as stated earlier, this one comes down to the same two films duking it out for Best Picture.
I predict whichever film wins Best Director -- the other will win Best Picture. Thus, if Damien Chazelle wins Best Director for his ambitious "La La Land" -- look for "Moonlight" to win best picture.
However, voters could decide to make history with the first-ever win for a black director for Barry Jenkins for "Moonlight". That would almost erase memories of #OscarsSoWhite, and would dominate news media discussions for days. Should that be the case, look for "La La Land" to win overall.
Chazelle may have an edge here. But it will be very interesting!
My personal favorite: Barry Jenkins ("Moonlight")
Who will win: Damien Chazelle ("La La Land")

14 best movies of 2016:
o "Moonlight"
o "Manchester by the Sea"
o "Hell or High Water"
o "Nocturnal Animals"
o "Hidden Figures"
o "Hacksaw Ridge"
o "Fences"
o "Deadpool"
o "The Jungle Book"
o "The Nice Guys"
o "10 Cloverfield Lane"
o "Zootopia"
o "Sully"
o "Arrival"

The worst movies I saw in 2016:
o "Independence Day: Resurgence"
o "The Boss"
o "Ride Along 2"
o "Money Monster"
There were probably many just as bad and perhaps even worse; I just refused to watch those!

o Dwight Strachan is the host/producer of " Morning Blend" on Guardian Radio. He is a television producer and writer, and an avid TV history and film buff. Email dwight@nasguard.com and follow him on twitter @morningblend969.

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