In declassified documents from nearly 30 years ago, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) thoroughly reviewed the potential fallout on the United States if then Prime Minister the late Sir Lynden Pindling were to be indicted on drug charges.

In a May 1988 declassified document, titled "The Bahamas:

Likely Reaction to a U.S. Drug Indictment", the CIA wrote, "A U.S. indictment of Bahamian Prime Minister Lynden Pindling on drugs charges would probably not bring significant domestic or international pressure on him, at least in the short term. "We believe the prime minister would retain his widespread popularity at home, unless incontrovertible evidence were presented against him.

"Pindling probably would revert initially to the anti-U.S. rhetoric that helped him to win re-election last June (1987) and publicly would refute all charges, while selectively cracking down on drug offenders as a smokescreen. "Most Caribbean area governments, tarred by their own narcotics-related corruption, would be reluctant to condemn the prime minister".

The document was contained among approximately 930 CIA declassified documents, which were released on the agency's website as part of a regular release of historical declassified records since 1999.

The documents were previously only available to the public at the National Archives in Maryland.

In its pragmatic review of the potential fallout of indicting Sir Lynden, the CIA said, if indicted, it believed the former prime minister had a "narrow, but potentially significant range of options that he could use to lash out at Washington", including the threat or serious consideration of curtailing cooperation with the U.S. on the interdiction of narcotics and illegal migrants.

It concluded that this would be the "most damaging measures for U.S. interests". Several years after The Bahamas' independence in 1973, a rampant culture of drug use and drug smuggling exploded in the country. In 1983, Sir Lynden established a commission of inquiry to probe the drug trade.

The commission found that Sir Lynden had $3 million more than his official income in his bank account. However, most of the members of the commission found the then prime minister's wealth could not be directly or indirectly traced to drug use, but instead to loans, mortgages and contributions from international businesses.

The CIA also considered the potential eventuality of Sir Lynden seeking to restrict U.S. military access in Bahamian territory, saying narcotics traffickers and Haitian migrants, in particular, "almost certainly would move quickly to exploit any perceived restrictions on U.S. Coast Guard operations in Bahamian waters".

"Until now, Nassau's permission for the U.S. Coast Guard to board, search and seize ships in Bahamian territorial waters has enhanced U.S. ability to deal with these problems," read the document. "Last year, expanded joint interdiction operations seized 11.3 metric tons of cocaine and 160 metric tons of marijuana, both record amounts, according to the U.S. Embassy.

"Still, U.S. law enforcement agencies estimate that 50 to 60 percent of all cocaine and marijuana entering the U.S. transits the 700 islands and territorial waters of The Bahamas. "As a result, Pindling might calculate that a mere threat to reduce anti-narcotics cooperation would prompt the United States to back off.

"If Washington continued to press charges, we believe the prime minister might drastically curtail cooperation with the United States on interdiction efforts.

"Pindling also might retaliate by expelling into international waters, the thousands of Haitians residing illegally in The Bahamas as Nassau did in 1985."

The CIA added the expulsion of undocumented Haitian nationals from The Bahamas would magnify the problem of intercepting illegal migrants coming into Florida.

"Pindling also might move to terminate the use of local facilities by U.S. military forces," the CIA wrote. Additionally, Washington considered the likelihood of bilateral cooperation in legal matters deteriorating, saying, "Nassau, in our view, might become reluctant to share information as provided for under the pending Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty, needed for criminal investigations in the United States."

However, the CIA said it believed Sir Lynden had no attractive economic options that he could use to retaliate against the U.S., as those actions would have a much greater impact on the Bahamian economy.

"The Bahamas has long depended on its political stability, banking secrecy, and status as a tax haven to attract tourism, offshore banking and insurance and foreign investment.

"Any moves such as expropriation of U.S. business and banking assets or imposition of a trade embargo that compromised these basics probably would plunge the economy into a deep recession with little economic repercussion on the United States."

The CIA said Sir Lynden's potential response in other areas would probably have a more limited impact on U.S. interests.

It said reducing what it described as a low level of bilateral cooperation on legal matters such as extradition and the exchange of evidence for criminal investigations would be "more symbolic than damaging to U.S. interests, at least in the near term".

The CIA said Sir Lynden would probably not face significant international pressure in the short term following a U.S. indictment, as most Caribbean governments, "tarred by their own narcotics-related corruption, probably would be reluctant to condemn the prime minister.

"We believe Pindling would also call for diplomatic support from other Caribbean countries, charging a U.S. attempt to oust him," the document read.

The agency also noted that then Attorney General Paul Adderley had begun to increase efforts to investigate and prosecute corrupt police officials, but the targets of Adderley's investigations were chosen for political reasons; "corrupt officers with ties to the ruling party have not been affected".

The CIA anticipated that Sir Lynden and other Bahamian officials would charge that the demand for drugs in the U.S. was to blame for the flow of narcotics via The Bahamas.

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