Make no mistake about it, there are many people, particularly FNM supporters, who do not like what the so-called "Rebel Seven" did in ousting Dr. Hubert Minnis as leader of the Official Opposition. What is more, there are many more in the general public who seem genuinely confused by the move. For these people, frustrated and angry about the conditions in the country as they are, the question is: How does the action by the seven get them closer to removing the PLP from government?
The answer to their question is that it doesn't. The ouster of Minnis simply revealed the deep fault line in the FNM and further weakened its prospects for defeating the PLP in the upcoming general election.
Prior to the ouster, the FNM was already on soft ground in its attempt to challenge the Christie-led PLP. This was largely because Minnis continued to be seen as an ineffective, lackluster leader. Yes, people across the country were disgusted with the PLP government, but when they looked at the alternative there were simply too many doubts about Minnis and his ability to lead. This notwithstanding, there remained a possibility that the Minnis-led FNM could depose the PLP, on account of the share anger of many voters about the difficult state of the country. The split resulting from the actions of the Rebel Seven makes that possibility much less likely.
At best, the FNM will go into the next election a single party with disunity as its brand. Other than corruption, only disunity plays a bigger role in promoting the defeat of a political party. There is little likelihood that the FNM can repair its fracture before Prime Minister Perry Christie rings the bell. It will enter the campaign season rowing with both the PLP and former or disgruntled high-ranking members of its own sect. This would be a challenge for a party led by even the most talented of leaders; for a Minnis-led party, this is almost impossible.
At worst, the FNM will find itself in competition with the PLP and a number of opposition factions. There will be the Greg Moss-led opposition faction; the Gatekeepers opposition faction; and the most formidable of all, an opposition faction consisting of some kind of arrangement between the Butler-Turner-led grouping and the McCartney-led DNA. Unified and led by Minnis, the FNM would have had a difficult time defeating the PLP. Competing against the PLP and all these different factions is an Everest-like ascent. It is not impossible, but hugely difficult indeed.
Loretta Butler-Turner, now leader of the opposition, must be careful. She faces a number of snaky situations. First, there is her alliance with Branville McCartney and the DNA. The DNA has said that it is not dissolving. If this is so, then Butler-Turner finds herself in a group with no organization. The DNA is an organization, though some might question whether it really is a group rather than a vehicle for a massive ego. Nonetheless, Butler-Turner will either have to form a political organization that will then form a coalition with the DNA, or be a group of independents that have some kind of tacit agreement with the DNA to cooperate after the next election; or she can join the DNA. Whatever she chooses, she must know that she is dealing with Branville McCartney, whose ambition is only exceeded by his ego.
Men and women only have genuine unity and relationships when their collective cause is larger than their individual interests and egos. Selfishness, pride and ego are enemies of unity and the success of a group. The FNM is at this present moment experiencing this reality. It remains doubtful that Branville McCartney can long endure any arrangement that does not fulfil his singular ambition, which is to be prime minister. In time, Butler-Turner and others will see.
Additionally, Butler-Turner faces the sympathy Minnis is receiving from members of the public resulting from the conduct of her and her colleagues. Whether due to ignorance or dogged loyalty to Minnis and the FNM, there are people who surely feel sorry for the FNM leader. Minnis and his team are also nurturing this sympathy, casting the actions of the seven as a rebellion rooted in selfishness and defiance. Few appreciate the inside details of what gave rise to this rebellion. Minnis' backdoor dealings, stifling insecurity, cutthroat behavior and divisive ways are hardly known to these members of the public. In truth, many an FNM has remained quiet, seeking to help the party win rather than disclose the internal treachery of its leadership. This may have been a mistake but it was the choice made.
It would be foolish for anyone to underestimate the value of sympathy. Bahamians love an underdog, and they would rather side with him or her than act rationally at times. Minnis knows this and he is playing to it. Many Bahamians are suffering and many feel that it takes a sufferer to help them out. Butler-Turner and her team are being cast as well-to-do big timers who do not need anyone or anything. If that image sticks, they will hardly be able to compete effectively in the next election, no matter with whom they unite. The election climate around the world is a kind of sufferers' paradise, where sympathy and stupid can trump sense.
At the moment, given the opposition turmoil and divided interests, I would have to say that going into the next election, the advantage belongs to Christie and the PLP. This is hardly because conditions in the country are so good that support for them is justified, though I do believe that Christie has done some things of which we might take note; but rather, because the alternative to them looks simply woeful at this time. There is also a growing class of people who look at each of the prospects for leading the country over the next five years and feel that of them all, Christie is the safest hands. About this we shall have something to say in another set of writings. For now, it is sufficient for all to be aware that there is a significant group of people who see the actions of the Rebel Seven as an unjustifiable rebellion, and it is providing Minnis, the embattled FNM leader, with some sympathy that could catch on.

o Zhivargo Laing is a Bahamian economic consultant and former Cabinet minister who represented the Marco City constituency in the House of Assembly.

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