"In the end, that's what this election is about. Do we participate in a politics of cynicism or a politics of hope?"
- Barack Obama
Tomorrow is Election Day in the United States of America. After 18 months of a protracted, heated and divisive campaign, millions of Americans will elect a new president, as well as congressional, state and local representatives. The primary focus, however, will be on the presidential race, which will be historic in several ways, no matter who wins.
Therefore, this week, we would like to Consider this... Who will likely win the 2016 presidential election and what does that mean for the United States, The Bahamas and the world?
The campaign
The 2016 U.S. presidential campaign has been one of the most hotly contested, divisive and vitriolic political challenges in the modern history of election campaigns, conspicuously devoid of substantive debate on the essential issues confronting the United States and the world.
The candidates have adopted definitively different approaches, ranging from Trump's scorched earth posture to Clinton's sanguine discussion of important national issues, although, in the final days of the contest, both candidates have resorted to extremely negative attack ads to capture undecided voters.
Donald J. Trump
Immediately after announcing his intention to run for president, Donald Trump launched a scathingly acrimonious campaign. Not long out of the gates, he commenced a racist attack on Mexicans, describing them as criminals, drug dealers and rapists, and also denigrated women, Muslims and other minorities living in America. Trump promised to build a wall on the southern U.S. border to keep the Mexicans out of America and pledged to "have Mexico pay for it". He obviously thought that this would inspire his base.
Early in the campaign, Trump described Republican Senator John McCain as "a loser" because the latter was captured during the Vietnam War. Trump also challenged the competency of a U.S. Federal judge to hear a lawsuit against him regarding charges of fraud against Trump University because, although he is an American citizen and a distinguished jurist, the judge's parents were Mexican.
Trump has viciously attacked media houses and personalities, fellow running mates during the primary campaign, the handicapped, women, African-Americans and the dispossessed and displaced who are fleeing the ravages of war in their countries like Syria to seek asylum in the democracies of Europe and the United States.
Donald Trump's enormous propensity for hyperbole is exceeded only by his gargantuan ego and he frequently demonstrates that he possesses an abysmally shallow grasp of important national and global issues.
In short, Donald Trump has demonstrated by his own assertions that he is a rabid racist, a neo-fascist, a misogynist, a serial abuser of women, a Muslim hater and an isolationist who possesses an insular and myopic worldview.
Donald Trump has offered few details on his policy positions. He is well known for stating his goals without giving any concrete or substantive details on how he intends to achieve them. Trump behaves like a spoiled child who, when he does not get his way, whines and complains at how unfair the rules are.
Trump has proven, on a weekly basis during the presidential campaign, that he is superlatively unfit to be president of the United States of America.
Hillary Rodham Clinton
During the primary and presidential campaigns, Hillary Clinton attempted to raise the debate to a higher level. Where she disagreed with her political adversaries, she always debated the merits or demerits of the issues, not personalities. She is extremely intelligent, with a deep understanding of the complexities and challenges of national and global issues.
Hillary Clinton understands how state and federal governments work, having served as the first lady of both Arkansas and the United States. She possesses an expansive worldview, with experience as a U.S. senator from New York and secretary of state. She has extensively traveled to personally meet and consult with world leaders. She exudes a positive sense of hope for the possibilities that await us.
Clinton's most injurious Achilles heel has been the infamous emails that she housed on her private server, a tremendous error in judgment; responsibility for which she has accepted and for which she has repeatedly apologized. She is also haunted by the many investigations to which she has been subjected during her public life, none of which resulted in an indictment or any kind of reprimand or sanction. It is also strikingly significant that some of Clinton's former investigators are now supporting her presidential bid.
Polling
This election will be instructive as to how accurate the polls have been. For the greater part of the campaign, most scientific polls suggested that Hillary Clinton has enjoyed a comfortable lead in the national polls and the 270 Electoral College votes that are required to win.
The polls significantly narrowed in the last 10 days of the campaign, especially after FBI Director James Comey's famous letter to Congress that the Bureau had "discovered" additional emails from Hillary Clinton on Anthony Weiner's computer. Weiner's estranged wife is Huma Abedin, a devoted Clinton confidante and vice chairman of the Hillary 2016 election campaign.
Polling is a very useful tool that informs candidates and the public about voters' perceptions of the campaign. The polling is normally scientific and, therefore, it will be very interesting to see where we end up. For example, the national polls currently have Clinton leading Trump by about three percentage points with Clinton at 46 percent and Trump at 43 percent supported by likely voters. The same national poll in the last election had President Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 47 percent each. In that election, Obama won with an actual majority of slightly more than 51 percent to Mitt Romney's 47 percent.
Who will win?
We believe that for all the reasons enumerated above, Hillary Clinton will win and become the first female president of the United States of America.
A Clinton presidency
The question that many voters will undoubtedly ponder before voting tomorrow is what kind of president will each of the candidates make?
We believe that Hillary will be a competent, able and informed president. She will enjoy the respect of world leaders and will be very engaging. She will continue some of the primary initiatives of President Barack Obama. However, if the Republicans win both houses of Congress, Hillary's presidency will be much like her predecessor's, with roadblocks thrown up at every turn in order to frustrate her agenda. The nation will have to endure another prolonged period of governmental gridlock.
A Trump presidency
Given Trump's erratic, cynical and unpredictable disposition and nature, a Trump presidency would be a tremendous cause for concern among many persons, not only Americans. Many Americans are extremely anxious about Trump's threat to deport 11 million illegal immigrants and his pledge for extreme vetting of certain ethnic groups for entry into the United States.
However, the most serious reservation about a Trump presidency is his inability to temper his reaction to important global events. There is genuine concern by many about trusting Trump with the nuclear codes, especially given his incendiary comments about the use of nuclear power to settle global conflicts.
Here in The Bahamas, a Trump presidency could witness the closing of U.S. Customs and Immigration Pre-clearance facilities, consistent with his posture on immigration, extreme vetting and isolationism.
Additionally, although The Bahamas generally fares better under Republican presidents, it is quite likely that a President Trump would present further challenges to our financial services sector.
Conclusion
How did Trump get this far? We believe that there are three primary reasons.
First, there are many Americans who loathe the Clintons, whether it is Bill or Hillary. They will do whatever they can to stop them from returning to the White House. We should not forget: the Clintons have been investigated - and cleared - more than any public officials in modern history and there are those who still want their pound of flesh.
Secondly, many Americans are genuinely and justifiably frustrated with politics as usual and politicians in general. For them, Trump's appeal is that he is a "Washington outsider".
Finally, for many, Donald Trump represents the pent-up racism and fascism that is extremely pervasive, albeit largely unspoken by millions of Americans. Trump is their "great white hope" to restore America to the nation that they believe the founding fathers intended it to be. Many Trump supporters want their country back so that they can reverse scores of progressive steps that were achieved over the past 200 years.
Donald Trump sees the glass as half-empty, whereas Hillary sees it as half-full. He is a cynic and she exudes hope.
The observation by Barack Obama is as relevant today as when first uttered: "In the end, that's what this election is about. Do we participate in a politics of cynicism or a politics of hope?"
o Philip C. Galanis is the managing partner of HLB Galanis and Co., Chartered Accountants, Forensic & Litigation Support Services. He served 15 years in Parliament. Please send your comments to pgalanis@gmail.com.
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