FNMs might have gotten a boost in their spirits at their fair this weekend, but let no one be fooled; the party’s troubles are becoming deeper by the week. Many FNMs have reached the conclusion that their leader, Dr. Hubert Minnis, will be a tough sell at the next general election.

Many believe the gamble with him would be too great, even if disaffection toward Perry Christie and the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) continues to grow. But unlike in 2005 when FNMs concluded they could not win an election with Tommy Turnquest as leader, the option for change is less obvious this time around.

Ten years since that critical moment for the party, the FNM is in a more dire position. Though there will always e a group who sees Hubert Ingraham as the answer, Ingraham, too, would be a great gamble in 2017. His time has passed. He has contributed. He has moved on. He should stay retired. FNMs should look ahead. The country needs to look ahead.

FNMs should not be surprised that there is a rising chorus for Minnis’ removal. They re-elected him in November, fully aware that he is an ineffectual, uninspiring leader with little fight in him. They determined that if they rallied around him, if they appeared to be a united party they could prop Minnis up. They had hoped that he could at least keep the party steady, if not strong. But as political pundits often opine, hope really is no strategy at all.

As the FNM limps along with Minnis and Peter Turnquest in leadership roles, the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) is oiling its political machine; it is getting the SSPLP battle ready. The Christie PLP is poor at governance, but it is skillful at preparing for elections.

It has rolled out a new, glitzy campaign called “Stronger Bahamas”, making full use of public money. It is pushing National Health Insurance and it will deliver it, even if it is only a skeleton of a program with no real benefits. It will deliver something and it will tell the country it has delivered.

The PLP will likely be well funded, no doubt rewarded by numbers men who can get their money in the banks now, even if it is only in Bank of The Bahamas.

The FNM has financing issues with Minnis at the helm. It cannot continue to ignore that as we move closer to an election. Ideas are great. Ideas are needed, but no election campaign can run effectively without money, and a lot of it.

Many of Minnis’ supporters counter the argument that he is uninspiring by saying we have had our fill of charismatic leaders; what is more important, they say, is a leader with ideas to move the country forward.

Minnis has not yet proved to many people that he even has those. He has criticized the government’s management of the Bahamas Electricity Corporation, but has offered no ideas for reform. He has been wishy-washy on multiple issues: the gaming referendum, the gender equality referendum and carnival are among them. He struggles to articulate clear positions and has a propensity to stray from the muddy positions he does take. He does not have a commanding presence and that works against him. He suffers from insecurity as a leader.

The party suffers from his insecurity as a leader. His political instincts are far from sharp. He cannot think on his feet. Being scripted will not help him much. A leader must be able to fight, to defend, to go toe-to-toe with Christie and his team of arrogant ministers.

Minnis’ parliamentary team has lost the little confidence it had in him. It is evident. The MPs do not see him as a strong leader. They would not admit it publicly, of course.

Risk
There are no signs that Perry Christie is preparing to exit the political stage. All the signs we have seen point to a Christie who is gearing up for another go at it.

There seems to be widespread Christie-fatigue in The Bahamas, but with Minnis as leader of the Free National Movement, the party would be risking a lot.

If it does pull off a victory with Hubert Minnis as leader and Minnis becomes prime minister we shudder to imagine the kind of hands our country would be in. For the FNM, and for the country, a big moment is approaching. The start of 2016, which is seven months away, will be no time for any party to change a leader.

The FNM has a big decision to make. It can stay in denial, it can take its chances with Minnis or it can do something else. The party’s challenge is there is no obvious go-to leader. This is sad. Most of the ministers from the most recent FNM administration were wiped out. They are on the outside looking in.

Last November, the party rejected Loretta Butler-Turner, who has outshone Minnis on multiple levels. But she irritated many FNMs when she publicly competed with Minnis in the press and exposed the party’s fractures. Well, it was fractured then. It still is now.

Butler-Turner has, for the most part, stayed in the shadows since she was crushed in the leadership race. We get the feeling that the Official Opposition is not now fully benefiting from her talents. The vote last November was a sound rejection of her. She has gracefully bowed to the side, seemingly doing only enough politically to show that she is still relevant.

In Parliament, Butler-Turner is the FNM’s best bet. Otherwise, the Official Opposition is limping along. It often appears unprepared, weak and lacking political instinct.

Disgraceful
The FNM team’s performance in Parliament last week was disgraceful. The MPs were like kittens quivering in the shadows of ferocious wolves.

Last Tuesday, the opposition scrambled as government MPs delivered an embarrassing pounding while Hubert Chipman, chairman of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC), tried to read a statement, protesting the decision of the Speaker of the House in relation to the PAC’s investigation into the Urban Renewal Programme.

Dr. Kendal Major, the speaker, determined earlier that the procedure the PAC was using to investigate that program was against the rules of the House and he asked the committee to “stay its hand” in that investigation. Fully cognizant of the fact that the speaker and the government would move to shut down Chipman’s statement to the House, the Official Opposition apparently had no planned response. Instead, the opposition members came across as school children as Fox Hill MP Fred Mitchell delivered a merciless lashing and the speaker flew into exaggerated outrage. A day later, the FNM’s House of Assembly team missed an opportunity to aggressively slice into the government after Christie’s budget communication.

The Official Opposition delivered a long, tepid, unfocused response to the communication. The weak House of Assembly team is due largely to the fact that it has weak leadership. Whereas the PLP in opposition was a team of experienced former ministers, the FNM in opposition has three former ministers — Minnis, Butler-Turner and Neko Grant, the former works minister, who is best remembered for a bungled New Providence Road Improvement Project.

The other FNM MPs are East Grand Bahama MP Peter Turnquest; St. Anne’s MP Hubert Chipman; North Eleuthera MP Theo Neilly; Montagu MP Richard Lightbourn and South and Central Abaco MP Edison Key, who plays little role in opposition politics.

DNA
The longer the FNM takes to get its act together, the more favorable the Democratic National Alliance (DNA) might appear to voters.

Branville McCartney continues to suffer image problems and he does not offer a lot of substance. But the DNA could become attractive to an increasing number of voters. It could also benefit from so-called protest votes. At this stage of the game, we do not see the DNA having any chance at forming the next government.

Unless something changes dramatically on the political landscape in the next 18 months or so, we would be surprised if the DNA even wins a seat in Parliament. It seems that party’s danger to the FNM and to the PLP might be splitting the vote in some cases, and that would make the DNA a powerful force in that respect.

Key players in the Free National Movement are not unmindful of these dynamics. They are having discussions behind the scenes, weighing their very limited and unattractive options, mindful that they do not have a lot of time in which to act.

The Christie administration’s performance over these three years has not inspired widespread confidence in the government. But confidence in the Official Opposition is at rock bottom.

The FNM could ignore these realities and gamble with Minnis, but it would do so at its own peril.

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