New Category : Hurricane
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-two Graphics
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 09:35 AM
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Nov 2023 14:35:43 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Nov 2023 14:35:43 GMT
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-two Forecast Discussion Number 4
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 09:34 AM
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-two Forecast Advisory Number 4
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 09:33 AM
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-two Public Advisory Number 4
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 09:33 AM
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-two AT2/AL222023
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 09:33 AM
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Graphics
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 06:33 AM
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Nov 2023 11:33:54 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Nov 2023 09:22:47 GMT
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 06:33 AM
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Public Advisory Number 3A
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 06:32 AM
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two AT2/AL222023
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 06:32 AM
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Graphics
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 03:38 AM
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Forecast Discussion Number 3
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 03:37 AM
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
000
WTNT42 KNHC 170837
TCDAT2
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number
3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
AL222023
400 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023
The disturbance remains fairly disorganized this morning. Convection
continues to burst near the poorly defined center, although the
overall pattern remains ragged with convection displaced well to
the northeast. Since the system still lacks a well-defined center
and organized deep convection, it remains a potential tropical
cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory
cycle.
The system is moving northeastward at about 9 kt. A mid- to
upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is steering the system to
the northeast, with increasing forward speed. This northeast motion
should take the disturbance across Jamaica later today, eastern Cuba
tonight, and across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands on Saturday. The system will merge with the trough on
Sunday, although the latest model guidance depicts that this could
occur sooner than currently forecast. There remains significant
speed differences between the global and hurricane regional models.
The NHC track leans towards the global models, which is on the
faster side of the guidance envelope near the ECMWF and GFS. The NHC
track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, just faster.
The latest global model guidance depicts that the system may fail
to consolidate convection and remaining elongated as southwesterly
vertical wind shear begins to increase, stretching the convective
structure. Although the model guidance has trended towards a less
organized system, there remains a brief window of opportunity for
the system to become a tropical cyclone. The official NHC forecast
depicts that the disturbance could become short-lived tropical
cyclone while it moves into the west-central Caribbean and near the
Bahamas. After passing through the Bahamas, the system is forecast
merge with the aforementioned trough and become extratropical in
about 48 hours, although this could occur sooner. The NHC intensity
forecast is the same as the previous one and lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the most significant
hazard from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, especially
in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Jamaica, southeastern
Cuba, and Hispaniola.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is forecast to become a
tropical storm later tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday, and
tropical storm watches are in effect for these areas.
2. Heavy rains from Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two will
impact portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and
Hispaniola through Monday morning. This rainfall is likely to
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 16.3N 80.3W
30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/1800Z 17.7N 78.6W
30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 19.9N 75.9W
35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 23.0N 72.2W
40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 26.4N 68.0W
45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 19/1800Z 30.1N 63.8W
45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Public Advisory Number 3
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 03:37 AM
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two AT2/AL222023
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 03:37 AM
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Forecast Advisory Number 3
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 03:36 AM
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Public Advisory Number 2A
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 12:46 AM
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two AT2/AL222023
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 12:46 AM
...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI...
As of 1:00 AM EST Fri Nov 17
the center of Twenty-Two was located near 16.0, -80.8
with movement NNE at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Graphics
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 12:46 AM
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Fri, Nov 17th 2023, 12:36 AM
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Graphics
Thu, Nov 16th 2023, 09:35 PM
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Forecast Discussion Number 2
Thu, Nov 16th 2023, 09:34 PM