Let's face it -- for most years, the only real "surprises" at the Oscars come while observing the bizarre wardrobe choices of some Hollywood celebrities. Otherwise, more-often-than-not, this is one of the most predictable award ceremonies.
But this year just might be different. When the 86th Academy Awards are handed out this Sunday, there are some genuine opportunities for minds to be blown.
Like last year, there are nine Best Picture nominees. With two exceptions ("August: Osage County" and "Blue Jasmine"), those nine films are the only ones represented in the six major categories: Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Director. Unfortunately, only five of these 11 movies (12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Gravity and The Wolf of Wall Secret) played in Bahamian theaters.
So, I'm going to try to handicap the four acting categories and the overall Best Picture category -- although if I had to predict a Best Director winner, I'd say it would likely be Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity).
I'll start with what I see as the easiest category to predict this year, through to the most unpredictable.
And next week, we'll see just how well I did with my picks!

Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustlez
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
PhilomenaThe Wolf of Wall Street
2013 was a very good year! Well, at least for movies. While nine Best Picture nominees sounds plentiful, we can probably come up with at least two or three others that also deserved to be included.
Compared to some of last year's lackluster nominees, these nine are all pretty special, and a couple may even go down as classics.
That said, there are some standouts. "Her" is a refreshingly bizarre look at a future many of us fear is just about here. That a man could fall in love and have an intimate relationship with his mobile phone's operating system, doesn't seem all that impossible when we realize just how lost many of us would be if we were to misplace these devices -- and we all know it's just a matter of time before the machines rise up and take full control of the human race.
For me, though, the most fun and enjoyable movie this year was "The Wolf of Wall Street". Yes, it's arguably half-an-hour too long, but that gave us more time to savor its spectacular all-around performances, and revel in the wild excesses of the rich in the 1980s -- and in those beautiful shots of The One&Only Ocean Club at Paradise Island
However, the most important and emotionally powerful movie of the year was "12 Years A Slave". I think Academy voters will agree this often gut-wrenching experience is a story that needed to be told, in a modern day film classic.
But these are the Oscars, and there can always be an upset -- remember the most famous one in recent times, 2004's "Crash"?
My personal favorite: "12 Years A Slave"
What will win: "12 Years A Slave"
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)

Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (Wolf of Wall Street)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
This is the year's most competitive category. For the five nominees these are all career defining performances -- especially for Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), who hitherto didn't even have an acting career.
If you still had some doubt about Jonah Hill following his Oscar nominated turn in "Money Ball", then surely all doubts were erased with "The Wolf of Wall Street". And Bradley Cooper's performance in "American Hustle" is arguably better than his Best Actor nominated "Silver Lining Playbook" role last year. In any other year, any of these men would walk away winners.
But again, in this category, this isn't just any year. Michael Fassbender is simply fascinating as a wretched slave master in "12 Years A Slave". It's one of the best acting performances of the year.
And yet, he will probably lose to Jared Leto. He so effectively plays Rayon, the drug-addicted, AIDS-infected transsexual in "Dallas Buyers Club", that there may be moments when you forget he is a man.
So as much as Hill and especially Fassbender lit up the screen this year, the momentum is in Leto's favor. And judging by past Oscar history, playing a cross-dressing/gender-bending character or one with drug-addiction or teminal illness, almost always gets you the award. So imagine one dealing with all of the above!
My personal favorite: Michael Fassbender (12 Years A Slave)
Who will win: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Lawrence
(American Hustle)?

Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August:
Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)

Even before the nominations were announced, this was always going to be a two-woman race.
Even though Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), and especially Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) and the scene-stealing June Squibb (Nebraska) deliver memorable performances, the two greatest supporting actress performances this year were delievered by Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong'o.
For Lupita Nyong'o's star turn performance to stand out among the many standouts in a film like "12 Years A Slave", says a lot about how powerful she is as slave girl Patsey.
But Jennifer Lawrence, too, steals every scene as Rosalyn in "American Hustle". She is in the Meryl Streep of her generation (see below). This can't be the same person we saw in "The Hunger Games" earlier in the year, or even her Oscar-winning turn in "Silver Lining Playbook". We can't say the same for so many actors who always seem to be playing slightly different versions of the same character.
I can't pick one over the other. I like both equally, and I will pray for the very rare tie.
But Lawrence is coming off an Oscar win as Best Actress just last year. And the media would love a "two-time Oscar winner at age 23" headline for the young star, so don't be surprised at a Lawrence win.
My personal favorite: Tie -- Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) & Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years A Slave)
Who will win: Jennifer Lawrence

Best Actor in a Leading Rolez
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

We could argue that some equally strong performances were left of this list -- Tom Hanks for "Captain Phillips", Michael B. Jordan "Fruitvale Station", and especially Joaquin Phoenix, "Her", immediately come to mind. But these are undoubtedly five strong performances.
Nevertheless, I think this will come down to a battle between this year's Golden Globe Award winners. The comedy winner versus the drama winner --DiCaprio vs. McConaughey.
DiCaprio delivered my favorite acting performance of the year, bar none. He is simply amazing in "The Wolf of Wall Street", playing his heart out with every line, every facial expression. He's had so many great roles that it would be hard to say this is his greatest performance yet. But a case could certainly be made.
There is no doubt, however, that this is definitely McConaughey's greatest performance ever. He demonstrates such commitment to the role of AIDS patient Ron in "Dallas Buyers Club"; the shocking weight loss -- and that hideous moustache -- leave almost no trace of the chiseled playboy most audiences may usually associate with the name McConaughey. But this goes much deeper than mere physical appearance transformations.
McConaughey is on a roll, and many are raving about his bold picture choices of late. Academy voters may decide to reward him for this brave new direction.
But five-time Oscar nominee DiCaprio -- who has never won -- is so long overdue, and so deserving here as well.
My personal favorite: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Who will win: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

It appears some think this one is a foregone conclusion, as a lot of people are raving about Cate Blanchett in "Blue Jasmine".
Well, I'm willing to bet that only one thing is certain here: Amy Adams will not win! Coincidentally, she's also the only one here who has never won an Oscar -- although she's been nominated five times.
I don't think Sandra Bullock's chances are that great either.
Instead, this is a race between three of the grand dames -- one literally a Dame -- of the modern film era.
I'm convinced Meryl Streep is not human. She's beyond that -- perhaps a robot hologram? That would be the only explanation for how someone can transform herself with every performance ... her every mannerism, the way she speaks and the depth of her voice. No two characters are the same. And her Violet Weston is exceptionally despicable in the dour "August: Osage County".
Dame Judi Dench is the complete opposite in the surprising title role of "Philomena" -- a lovable joy to watch.
Yes, Blanchett is excellent as always, and is the best thing about the uneven "Blue Jasmine". We get to witness a tour-de-force performance -- on-demand acting demonstration of emotions, as we see Jasmine's world fall apart. But issues with the pacing and storyline of the film itself make me wonder if Blanchett really has this one all sewn up.
Needless to say this is the most difficult category to predict. In six nominations, Blanchett only has one win for Supporting Actress. That's the same number of wins and in the same category for Dench in seven nominations. Of course, Streep is world famous as the actor with the most nominations in history -- 18 and three wins.
This could go any way, and each of these ladies is deserving. I concede that Blanchett might have a slight edge. But if there are going to be any real "surprises" at this year's awards, it's going to be here.
My personal favorite: Judi Dench (Philomena)
Who will win: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

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