"Public opinion is the thermometer a monarch should constantly consult."
- Napoleon Bonaparte
Earlier this month, we wrote about the developments related to web shops in The Bahamas one year after the ill-fated referendum on the regulation and taxation of web shop gaming and the establishment of a national lottery. For much of this month, there seems to have been a softening of the opposition in certain quarters and outright support from some parts of the community that heretofore were silent on the issue. In addition, following several articles that appeared in the media about the effectiveness of the official opposition, we thought it would be instructive to take the pulse of the nation on this topical issue as well as one other.
Therefore, this week, we would like to Consider This... what are people thinking now about the important issue of the regulation of web shops and how do they generally feel about certain members of the official opposition?
Referendum results
We previously reported that on January 28, 2013, the referendum results were neither conclusive nor persuasive. The voter turnout of just 48 percent of the 2012 registered voters was extremely low compared to the 156,000 votes cast in the 2012 general election, which represented an impressive 91 percent turnout of the 172,128 registered voters.
In the referendum, the total number of votes cast against the regularization of web shops was 51,146, or 62 percent of the votes cast, versus 31,657, or 38 percent of the votes cast in favor of regularization. We concluded that the low voter referendum turnout compared to that of the 2012 general election demonstrated that it would be erroneous to conclude that a majority of Bahamians are opposed to regularizing web shops.
In an earlier article, we proffered several reasons for the outcome of the referendum which we will not repeat here.
The January poll results
Also in the aforementioned article, we reported on the results of a scientific poll of 575 individuals that was conducted in January, noting that the number of persons who supported the regulation and taxation of web shops was 55 percent of those polled while 40 percent of the respondents opposed the prospect.
In light of that poll's results, we maintain that the referendum outcome in 2013 did not accurately represent the genuine national sentiment on this issue, particularly in light of the extremely low voter turnout.
The February poll results
M'wale Rahming, president of Public Domain, a Bahamian research company, recently conducted another scientific poll, this time of 606 persons, about local sentiments regarding the web shops and the results of this most current poll were even more instructive than the poll that was conducted last month.
In this later poll, persons were asked two questions: "1. If the government of The Bahamas announced that they were tabling legislation to regularize and tax web shop gaming as of March 1, would you support or oppose this decision?"
The results of the February poll indicated that 68 percent of the respondents supported the regularization and taxation of web shops while 24 percent were opposed to doing so. The results represent a 13 percent increase in support for the regularization and taxation of web shops over the January polling results. Instructive indeed!
The second question posed by Public Domain was: "If the government of The Bahamas announced that as of March 1 they would begin arresting and prosecuting anyone involved in web shop gaming, would you support or oppose this decision?"
The results of the poll indicated that 57 percent of the respondents opposed such action by the authorities while 35 percent supported doing so.
Results on the opposition's favorability ratings
We also asked Public Domain to poll the favorability ratings of members of the opposition, something that would probably be similar to what is known in the United States as a politician's all-important approval rating. Again, the poll was conducted on a statistically valid basis from 606 respondents. The opposition members who were selected to be polled represented a cross section of politicians. The following is a recap of the poll results:
The two persons who stood out in this exercise were Loretta Butler-Turner and Branville McCartney. It is interesting that, of all the FNM members who were selected for this exercise, she enjoyed the highest favorability rating; considerably higher than Hubert Ingraham, who also marginally outpaced the favorability rating for Dr. Hubert Minnis, the current leader of the official opposition. This is especially enlightening because she is a relative newcomer to Bahamian politics, although her antecedents are not.
In addition, notwithstanding his relatively low favorability rating of 35 percent, compared to his colleagues, John Bostwick, a virtual newcomer to Bahamian politics, has performed impressively, especially because he has a relatively low unfavorability rating which very closely compares with that of Loretta Butler-Turner. It can be suggested that the large number of persons who responded (for Bostwick) that "they did not know" is a function of his fairly recent entry into the political fray.
But it was Branville McCartney, leader of the Democratic National Alliance, who scored the highest favorability rating of all members of any of the opposition parties. It is also interesting that he enjoys the lowest unfavorability rating of all his competitors in opposition who were polled. Perhaps, based on the public's feedback, he should not be so quickly discounted by others in the political mainstream. And more importantly, he should conduct his own poll to help him to understand what accounts for his overwhelmingly impressive polling in this lot.
In the interest of full disclosure, it should be noted that Public Domain performed a similar exercise for the Progressive Liberal Party but could not release the results of that poll because it has been retained to poll members of the PLP by another client and the release of those results would constitute a breach of confidentiality.
Conclusion
Regarding the results relative to the web shops, we repeat that the time is long overdue for the government to demonstrate bold, decisive leadership in this regard and to finally do the right thing by regularizing this activity which tremendously and positively impacts our economy by way of employment, business financing and other spinoff benefits that are not currently factored into the nation's gross domestic product.
Regarding the results relative to the favorability ratings of members in opposition to the government, it is apparent that challenges for the leadership of the FNM are in the cards. It is also very evident that Branville McCartney should be energized by his performance in this polling and, perhaps, begin an even more vigorous challenge to what has, up to now, been a firmly entrenched two-party system.
o Philip C. Galanis is the managing partner of HLB Galanis & Co., Chartered Accountants, Forensic & Litigation Support Services. He served 15 years in Parliament. Please send your comments to pgalanis@gmail.com.
Click here to read more at The Nassau Guardian
