The government has been presented with an initial report by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) on how it could go about creating a 25-year plan "to guide the development of the nation", which would move the country from "ad-hoc" prioritization of investments and policies that have left the economy performing at a "sub-optimal" level.
In a 16-page "terms of reference" document presented to the government on October 21 by IDB economic planning consultant Dr. Nicholas Miles, it is proposed that developing a national development plan (NDP) for The Bahamas ultimately requires the creation of two "interdependent" road maps for the country: One directed towards "governance improvement" and the other, "socio-economic development".
These two road maps would be targeted, in the first case, towards improving the effectiveness of government with respect to the ability to set "investment and operational priorities" and "devise and execute development, investment and operational plans", and in the latter, towards ensuring buy-in and input from key decision makers and the public and private sectors, who will agree on a vision for the country and an "implementation plan" for the period 2015 to 2040.
Overall, Miles' terms of reference suggest a highly ambitious project to develop within a short space of time - nine months and on a small budget of $350,000 - a 25-year plan for the The Bahamas' long-term sustainable economic development that it has lacked since independence.
An international consultant is expected to work in collaboration with a team from the government to prepare the document, which is intended to include "detailed milestones and targets for the first five years and indicative milestones and targets over subsequent five-year intervals".
Financing could come from the government budget, public-private partnerships and donor support, the terms of reference indicate.
Miles proposes that the NDP should include a short-term (three-to-five-year) implementation plan which identifies key programs and projects and which would be accompanied by a financial plan that "clearly demonstrates how key programs and projects can be funded".
This short-term plan would be "reflected in the operational plans of the relevant ministries and be associated with targets, milestones and key performance indicators".
In the case of this plan, Miles calls for the identification of "bankable" programs and projects that are "attractive to external funders".
A medium-term (five-to-10-year) plan would also be produced, "highlighting possible important and bankable programs and projects".
In the terms of reference supplied to the government, Miles reiterates as justification for the work now taking place towards the development of an NDP fairly damning comments made by the IDB regarding the historic lack of economic planning in The Bahamas.
"The Bahamas has lacked a comprehensive and publicly discussed long-term development strategy since its independence in 1973. Without such a strategy the prioritization of policies, programs and investment projects often has been made on an ad hoc basis, and has tended to be vulnerable to short-term political pressures and the individual agendas of line ministries.
"This has led to inefficiencies and inconsistencies in investment decisions as authorities have lacked objective justification to either reject non-priority projects or clearly identify and encourage priority projects. As a consequence the economy has tended to perform at a sub-optimal level and is characterized by geographical and social disparities and institutional fragmentation within government, and is unnecessarily vulnerable to the volatility of the global economy," states Miles.
The terms of reference call for the preparation of the NDP to be undertaken via three phases of work. The three phases envisaged include: Creating the evidence base for the plan; defining the vision and strategy by engaging stakeholders, and lastly a phase in which the implementation and financing plans would be devised and the final document produced.
During the "evidence gathering" phase, Miles proposes the establishment of "tripartite NDP thematic groups" involving stakeholders across areas including infrastructure, human capital, tourism, financial services and the green economy. This phase will culminate in the creation of a "state of the nation report" that will also incorporate all relevant recommendations from any and all "relevant reports" on The Bahamas that have been produced in the past.
The evidence gathering phase will also involve a collaborative "opportunity analysis" which will "identify those economic activities characterized by substantial inclusive growth opportunities and with the clear potential for private sector investment".
"The consultant should establish a defensible framework to filter, scan, screen and select these opportunities in order to eliminate those that have low probability of implementation and/or transformational impact," suggests Miles.
The "vision and strategy" phase would see the establishment of a vision and strategy for "how The Bahamas economy should evolve over the coming 10 to 30 years".
"These visions and strategies will guide decision making in terms of policy, programs and resource allocation."
This phase could consist of inter-political party workshops, stakeholder and community workshops, surveys of industries, use of digital media and community festivals and debates, suggests the document.
Limited capacity
The report indicates that the IDB was called upon by the government to assist with the development of the plan, given the "lack of experience in The Bahamas in the preparation of national strategies and plans, and the limited capacity of the Office of the Prime Minister to do so."
However, it is intended that the plan would be "prepared with participation from and validation by the Bahamian citizens, the private sector and the opposition, in order to ensure the level of ownership needed to transcend the current administration and serve as a road map for informing future public and private investment decisions and policy making."
It is anticipated that a "high degree of Bahamian involvement" will occur and that a significant proportion of the budget would be spent on engaging Bahamian consultants or organizations to assist in the plan's development process.
"In order to strengthen local ownership and build local capacity, it is envisaged that a high level of effort will be procured from Bahamian institutions and expertise. It is expected that many of the positions will be filled by Bahamians, in particular the project coordinator."
Positions such as team leader and project coordinator, as well as infrastructure, human capital, economic development, governance and institutional and sector-related specialists, are all called for under the terms of reference, with three of these posts specifically said to require or prefer those with "Bahamian experience".
A "project launch" event is proposed where the private sector, civil society and wider government is familiarized with the NDP preparation process and how they can participate.
"This meeting could be a combination of a live event plus video/media feeds. Social network/blog sites could be established in order to provide "real time" inputs to the process of preparing the NDP, to build, maintain and secure wide stakeholder ownership, and to ensure that the preparation of the NDP is undertaken in an open and transparent manner," suggests Miles.
It is envisaged in the document that the NDP project will commence in early 2014, and would be completed "within nine months of commencement."

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