Politics can be a fickle business.
Governing parties can find themselves in opposition overnight, their once towering empires reduced to little more than rubble when the will of the electorate is expressed.
The thrashing the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) gave the Free National Movement (FNM) in the general election one week ago is a clear cut example of how unpredictable the political climate can be.
Now, with only nine seats in Parliament to the PLP's 29, the FNM must again learn how to function in opposition and live with the reality that its message failed to resonate with the majority of voters.
And it must also determine why.
The most obvious answer: Hubert Alexander Ingraham.
The former prime minister and FNM leader, bet his fate -- and pretty much the fate of his entire party -- on the notion that the general election was all about his leadership versus now Prime Minister and PLP Leader Perry Christie's.
The FNM let him, and paid dearly for it.

What the election was really about
At rally after rally, event after event, functions, on the floor of Parliament, and at just about every other opportunity he got, Ingraham lambasted Christie's leadership.
He called Christie weak and indecisive. He dredged up PLP scandals of the past. He dragged a prominent member of the clergy and Dame Marguerite Pindling, the widow of Sir Lynden Pindling, into the mudslinging between himself and the PLP.
He talked incessantly about the 'cookie jar' and how the back-room dealers in the PLP were salivating to regain access to it.
But perhaps Ingraham did not realize that he was most likely preaching to the choir.
This election was not about Perry Christie and the past transgressions of the PLP.
This election was about overall joblessness; an unemployment rate of over 30 percent among young people; an underperforming economy; an alarming rate of crime and four murder records in five years, just to name a few.

Messaging
Ingraham couldn't seem to find the right message to convey the many things his administration had done to ease economic hardship, combat crime and fix the nearly broken justice system.
And a finely-tuned PLP media machine excoriating him on a daily basis certainly didn't help.
While bidding his constituents in North Abaco farewell over the weekend, Ingraham acknowledged that the party's message was rejected by the majority of voters.
But why that message fell flat is still unclear.
Many younger voters, who he claimed saw him as the establishment, perhaps could not get through his sometimes brash attitude and in-your-face style that accompanied the message.
And many of them were probably too young to have paid much attention to Christie's last term in office, or simply did not care when faced with the prospect of having no prospects.
They perhaps only saw a PLP that said it believed in them and stacked it up against an FNM that said they should believe in Ingraham.
The PLP and FNM also delivered their messages differently.
Perry Christie and his team shrewdly allowed candidates to deliver many of the promises in the party's platform. Christie spent most of his time attacking Ingraham in speeches that varied little since the beginning of the year.
But Ingraham saved the big announcements for himself.
In another shrewd move, the PLP, as much as it could, kept Perry Christie away from reporters, which is very easy to do without him having the burden of governing.
This made the possibility of gaffes much more unlikely, though Christie became much more accessible as the campaign wound down.
Ingraham took all comers and gave the opposition fodder to further paint him as a 'tyrant' or a 'dictator'.

Mistakes along the campaign trail
Ingraham and the FNM also erred critically by waiting so long to introduce so many new candidates to the country.
Where some new PLP candidates had been in their respective communities for up to two years, Ingraham only really gave his people a few months to campaign.
Then he went on his now famous walkabouts in Bains Town and Grants Town, Englerston and Centreville.
He also went into different areas, but might have been better served by walking about in the southern New Providence constituencies, where margins were much closer.

Road works and the BTC sale
The New Providence Road Improvement Project may just have cost Hubert Ingraham his job. That project, which he personally described as 'torturous', coupled with the sale of the majority stake in the Bahamas Telecommunications Company to Cable and Wireless Communications, infuriated many people.
The road project, which dragged on and on, caused businesses to close and led to the loss of employment for many roadside vendors.
Add to that the frustration many New Providence residents had from waiting in traffic and figuring out alternate routes of travel on an almost daily basis, and many voters may have just made up their minds a long time ago that the FNM would not get their vote.
What seems strange is the unapologetic manner in which the government moved forward as it became clear that the project, though necessary, was very unpopular.
Stranger still, was the deadpan way in which the prime minister told the country that the mammoth project was $77 million over budget.
The privatization of BTC was also very interesting to watch unfold.
Not only did the opposition and every union in the country clearly state their disapproval, but hundreds of people marched on Parliament numerous times to protest it.
Yet, rather than slow the process down and allow more people time to process the information, Ingraham rammed it through Parliament and ignored the outcry.

What about the DNA?
Whether the Democratic National Alliance (DNA) spoiled the election for the FNM is still unknown and will require further study.
But what is clear is that the DNA had an impact at the polls, garnering around eight percent of the total vote, compared to 42 percent for the FNM and over 48 percent for the PLP.
As pointed out in The Nassau Guardian last week, had the votes cast for the DNA gone to the FNM in at least a dozen constituencies, Hubert Ingraham would once again be prime minister.

Moving forward
Now, Ingraham will retire and Killarney MP Dr. Hubert Minnis will lead the FNM in Parliament. The party will have a convention to solidify its leadership team later this month and go about the business of opposing.
Redemption is possible -- just look at the PLP.
That party, voted out in 2007 after a single term many describe as 'squandered', found its way back to power by focusing less on what the Ingraham administration was doing, and more on getting its own house in order.
The FNM is still a very popular party, performing well in the popular vote, despite the disproportionate number of seats in the House of Assembly.
Do not waste time sulking and bickering internally like the PLP did following its last defeat at the polls.
The FNM must move quickly to fortify its leadership team, push new blood to the forefront, establish a reliable and vocal shadow Cabinet and hold the PLP accountable at every turn.
Stay in the communities. Do not hide within your walls. Ask the people who voted against you, what you could have done better and seek to implement that.
The FNM has a chance to remake itself now that the shadow of Ingraham no longer looms over it. The next few years can be an era of possibility or can be lost languishing in confusion.

What now for Ingraham
As Ingraham memorably commented at a press conference not too long after he was last returned as prime minister, "I am distinct. I am not like others".
Truer words may never have been spoken.
Love him or hate him, Ingraham has left an indelible mark on Bahamian politics and will never be forgotten.
No matter how the PLP might try to obscure it, his legacy, like that of Sir Lynden's, will remain strong.
Ingraham and his cohorts brought about the most significant infrastructure upgrades in the country's history. He shepherded projects that changed the economy. And some of those will continue to bear fruit for the foreseeable future.
He built a new straw market, a new stadium, and a new port.
He oversaw significant phases of the redevelopment of Lynden Pindling International Airport, and other airports in the country.
He dredged Nassau Harbour, restored Goodman's Bay, Montagu Beach and Saunder's Beach.
He established a minimum wage and unemployment insurance.
He freed the airwaves and in so doing created a new media industry.
He built new courts and upgraded Parliament.
He launched the construction of the critical care wing at Princess Margaret Hospital.
He built many schools and clinics.
He upgraded the water system in New Providence and many other islands.
He did those things and much more.
The PLP has said it will consider appointing a Commission of Inquiry to investigate many matters, which could mean that we have not seen the last of Hubert Alexander Ingraham.
But money is scarce and the clock is ticking for the Christie administration, which promised results in a very short time.
In the meantime, Ingraham said he will return to his law practice and go 'fishnin' as often as he can.
Go right ahead 'Papa'. You earned it.

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