May 07, 2012
The Council For Concerned Bahamians Abroad (CBA) has conducted an analysis and produced a report on the potential results in the upcoming Bahamas General Elections. The analytical report is not a poll, but an analysis of potential results based on a review of several polls, historical votes cast in prior elections and constituencies, the quality and work of the individual candidates in their constituencies, the respective Parties and their overall work, reviews of known changes in voter preferences, the depressed economy, and the impact of the generational shift in the electorate.
The analysis has concluded that the Election is too close to call as to which Party will win the Government. The probability of a coalition government due to the DNA’s influence as some have suggested, does not seem to be supported by the Analysis. However, the Report does indicate as noted in previous CBA reports on www.ourbahamas.org, that the DNA may be highly influential in deciding which major party candidate ultimately wins a significant number of the parliamentary seats. Ironically, the Report indicates that the DNA as a party is unlikely to win any seats, with the possibility of only one seat leaning to the DNA and the likelihood that they are in a potential tie for one other.
The Analysis concludes that the DNA will poll between fifteen (15) and twenty three (23) percent of the overall votes, with greater significance in New Providence and Grand Bahama. The polling of this significant amount of votes in any particular constituency will make it extremely difficult to predict which of the major party candidates will win many of the seats.
In general, the analysis has determined that the FNM has lost some votes and support from their prior electoral base due to some dissatisfaction with their leader, and attrition to the DNA . There is some evidence that they may have gained some new support from the registration of a significant amount of additional voters in the Haitian-Bahamian Diaspora. This new support may be important in maintaining the relative percentage of the overall electorate previously held by the FNM.
Generally, the Analysis reports that the PLP has not gained much additional support and has lost some voters due to the natural attrition of their aging voter base, and some movement to the DNA, although less than from the FNM to the DNA.
The DNA has been the big winner in accumulating voters, however it appears they have not accumulated a sufficient amount to become the Government even in a coalition scenario. The generational shift in the Bahamian electorate has arrived, and the DNA is the beneficiary. There are many voters who are wary of the leaders of the FNM and PLP and their parties predominance, and feel that a change is needed. Many of these voters are of the younger generations, and the increasingly influential tertiary educated population that traditionally leaned toward the FNM. Thus, the greater impact upon the FNM voter base.
The analysis details a situation where the PLP may have a slight advantage catalyzed by the DNA’s influence. The PLP may be in a position that some may see as having the Election “placed in their lap”, considering this DNA factor and the depressed state of the economy.
The CBA’s “Analytical Report on The Potential Results of the Bahamas 2012 Elections” details the following:
Based on this Analysis the ultimate winner of the government is too close to call considering the many variables at play.