Last week, when the leaders of the country's major political parties were either defending debunked job creation numbers, vacillating on critical women's rights issues or conjuring images of arcane obeah resurrection rituals, The Nassau Guardian released a scientific poll of voter support throughout the country.
The FNM had 34.2 percent total support among those surveyed and the PLP had 30.3 percent of support placing the governing and opposition parties in a statistical dead heat when factoring in a 4.4 percent margin of error, according to a poll conducted by marketing research firm Public Domain for The Guardian between March 5 and March 12.
The Democratic National Alliance (DNA) had 21.7 percent total support.
There was huge reaction to the poll and widespread discussion about what it means for what is expected to be one of the most closely contested elections in recent memory.
When we take a look at the demographics within the poll we get an even better idea of who supports whom as the election approaches.
If the general election was held at the time the poll was taken, more men would vote for the FNM than the PLP, the poll discovered.
Among the 501 respondents surveyed, 36.3 percent of men said they would vote for another Ingraham administration, while 28.2 of men would opt for another Christie administration.
The DNA had a fairly strong showing among men, with 25 percent of them throwing their support behind the fledgling party.
Nine percent of men surveyed were undecided. The poll also showed that 1.5 percent of men surveyed would choose an option other than the three major parties.
When it came to women, the FNM and the PLP were neck and neck.
Among women respondents, 32.3 percent supported the FNM, while 32.2 percent supported the PLP.
Female DNA supporters made up 18.7 percent of those surveyed. Many more women appear to be undecided (15.2 percent).
Only 1.6 percent of women said they would not support any of the three major parties.

Voting divisions by age
Clear distinctions can be made when the electorate is examined by age group.
The PLP has the advantage over the FNM among those younger than 35.
Among those between 35 and 54 years of age, the PLP actually comes in a close third behind the DNA.
And among those over 55, the DNA appears to barely register.
A clearer distinction between those who just became eligible to vote in the upcoming election and those who have voted before but have not yet turned 35 years old, would have helped to better demonstrate exactly where the parties stand among different subsets of young voters.
But what is gleaned from the data is that 34.1 percent of this voting bloc supports the PLP, 29.7 percent of this voting bloc supports the FNM and 25.9 percent support the DNA.
Among voters under 35, 7.9 percent remain undecided and 2.4 percent plan to support someone not on the ticket of a major party.
The FNM has a major lead among voters between 35 and 54 years old.
The governing party garnered 35.1 percent of the support of this group.
The DNA trailed with 23.9 percent of support among this age group.
The PLP was basically even with the DNA with 23.5 percent of support among this voting bloc.
However, things could shift in favor of any of the parties, as 16.3 percent of this group remained undecided - the largest percentage in any demographic.
Those planning to support someone other than a candidate of the major parties only accounted for 1.2 percent of this bloc.
The FNM also leads the PLP among voters 55 years old and up. This same category presents the most troubling information for the DNA.
Support for the new major party among this group, which has most likely participated in several elections, is considerably weak.
Among those 55 and older, 42.2 percent support the FNM, 37.2 percent support the PLP, and just 7.3 percent support the DNA.
Even if all the undecided voters in this bloc (12.7 percent) threw their support behind the DNA, the party would still have less than half the support enjoyed by the FNM and would be nowhere within striking distance of the PLP.
This group also has the lowest number of voters (0.6 percent) who would choose to pick an option other than the FNM, PLP or DNA, according to the poll.

But can polls predict winners?
If the winner of the next general election is determined by popular vote, the methodology used in this poll (often used to predict winners in much larger countries), would make this a fair indicator of how things would go if ballots were cast today.
However, the party that forms the next government will be determined by which one of them gets the majority of seats in Parliament.
There is no reason to discount that a party that loses the popular vote could still win the majority of seats in Parliament.
The recent amendments to the boundaries have sought to minimize this, but with lower numbers of voters in many Family Island constituencies, there are many scenarios that could play out.
A more detailed set of polls of all 38 constituencies would paint a much clearer picture of who could win the next general election.

DNA could play critical role
FNM Leader Hubert Ingraham has said that the DNA will not be a factor and the race for the prize is essentially between his party and the PLP.
PLP Leader Perry Christie has taken the same position, boldly declaring that the DNA will not win a single seat.
DNA Leader Branville McCartney, whose own seat both Ingraham and Christie believe is in jeopardy, has said that if there is no clear majority winner after the next election, he will insist that another election be held.
If the Public Domain poll translates to seats across the board and the undecided are split equally among the parties, then McCartney's DNA could win as many as 10 seats, leaving no party with a clear majority.
In that case, the DNA could be the kingmaker, deciding who will head a possible coalition government.
All the leaders think this scenario unlikely.
However, stranger things have happened.
In the event that such a situation presents itself, McCartney would be wise to rethink his position.
And the two veteran leaders may want to do likewise.

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