The Free National Movement (FNM) and the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) are in a statistical dead heat ahead of the 2012 general election, according to the results of a poll conducted for The Nassau Guardian by market research and public opinion polling company Public Domain.
Asked who they would vote for if an election was held today, 30.5 percent said they would vote for the FNM; 23.7 percent said PLP; 16.5 percent said Democratic National Alliance (DNA); 1.6 percent said they would vote for other parties or candidates and 12.2 percent said they were undecided.
Another 3.7 percent were classified as FNM leaners; another 6.6 percent as PLP leaners and another 5.2 percent as DNA leaners.
The FNM therefore got 34.2 percent of the total support; the PLP got 30.3 percent of total support and the DNA got 21.7 percent of total support.
"Leaners in The Bahamas don't mean they would vote for that party," Public Domain President M'wale Rahming explained.
"If all the undecided swing to one of the two leading parties they would win by a large majority."
Public Domain contacted 501 respondents in a telephone survey between March 5 and March 12, 2012. Such a sample size has a maximal margin of error of 4.4 percent, researchers said.
Rahming explained that the margin of error places the FNM and PLP in the statistical dead heat.
The data was weighted by region, age and gender in order to represent the Bahamian adult population.
"The two main parties are very close," researchers concluded. "The margin during the poll period between the PLP and FNM was similar to the margin between the parties at the 2007 general election."
Public Domain also asked respondents who they thought would be the "presumed winner" in the upcoming general election.
The question was specifically worded: "According to you, which party will win the next election?"
Thirty-two percent of the respondents said the FNM; another 32 percent said the PLP; eight percent said the DNA and 28 percent of the respondents were undecided.
"What we've seen over the last month or so has been the FNM holding strong and PLP rise as the DNA's vote goes down," Rahming told The Nassau Guardian.
"What this would say to me is there is a significant anti-government vote that is being split by the PLP and the DNA. The idea is I think Bahamians do not believe that the DNA can win and believe that one of the two other parties will win the next election, but aren't sure which one."
Rahming said Public Domain was not surprised by the results of the survey because it has been internally tracking the political mood of the country for months.
"I think people in the country realize this is the mood of the country and I also expect things to become tighter over the next few weeks," he said.
The methodology used by Public Domain was scientific, noted Rahming.
He also pointed out that when United States pollsters conduct polls to get the mood of a population of 300 million, they only conduct 1,000 or 1,500 interviews using the principle of random sampling.
"One of the fundamental principles of data collection is that when we start interviewing, each and every single Bahamian has the exact same chance of being dialed," he said, adding that no cell phone numbers are dialed.
"This is more for the mood of the country than a per constituency poll."
Rahming further explained, "We have three levels of making sure that we're representative of the population.
"We have the random sampling. Then we use what's called quotas; we set how many men and women we speak to based on how many men and women the Department of Statistics says are in the country.
"If we dial 100 people, and the Department of Statistics says females are 52 percent, we're going to speak to 52 females.
"We then weight the data based on the demographics provided by the Department of Statistics. This means that every Bahamian profile is equally and proportionately represented in the survey."

Making their case
On the campaign trail, political party leaders continue to make their case for why voters should choose their parties.
At a rally in Nassau Village Saturday night, PLP Leader Perry Christie said his party will be "entrusted with the awesome challenge of taking our country in a new direction; a new direction towards a safer, a more prosperous future".
Christie told supporters, "Believe me when I say that I am supremely confident that with God's good grace and your support, we will form the next government of The Bahamas. Believe me on that."
And Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham told supporters in Eleuthera on Saturday night that the FNM has the better record on health care and education.
"We have the better team to deliver clean and transparent government," said Ingraham, drumming away at a theme that was also prominent in the 2007 election campaign.
"We have the better vision for jobs and economic recovery. We have the better programs and policies for youth development. We most definitely have the better leadership to fight crime and renew our national spirit."

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