The sharp rise in crime is the end product of a vicious cycle as consumer confidence falls along with the country's GDP, according to a leading professor of Economics & Finance at the College of The Bahamas (COB). Randy Forbes, the author of a new report analyzing the Consumer Confidence Index, said the escalation in deviant behavior must be addressed with strong leadership.

"What we discovered is what people have feared," he told Guardian Business. "Now you have something visual and concrete to support the information. Crime is the end result and it needs to be corrected."

According to figures from the Department of Statistics and the Royal Bahamas Police Force, there has been a marked increase in crime from just under 12,000 incidents in 2007  to 14,000 mishaps in 2008. Meanwhile, the GDP fell from zero percent growth in 2007 to approximately -1.7 percent in 2008.

Pointing out that new GDP numbers are usually "a year or two lagging", The Bahamas will likely see some lackluster numbers considering the unprecedented spike in crime over the last two years, he said.
Forbes referred to crime as a "lagging indicator" of poor consumer confidence.

After someone loses their job in a poor economy, for example, frustration sets in and individuals seek alternative ways to support themselves. This often leads to crime, he explained.

Therefore, with this in mind, the most effective way to combat crime is not necessarily through enforcement, but through government leadership and job creation.

"If you make jobs available and improve resources, the crime rate will go down," he said. "People need jobs. If people are working, they have dignity and they don't create as much trouble. If you reduce crime, you will improve consumer confidence."

One of the main conclusions of the report is consumer confidence in 2011 has fallen to the lowest in years.

Forbes and his team gave it an overall rating of "pessimistic", sitting at a lowly 58 percent.

During this Christmas shopping season, he felt there is some money in our pockets, but consumers may be reluctant to spend it.

"Vendors should increase inventory but do so cautiously," he told Guardian Business.

Winston Rolle, the chairman of the Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employers Confederation (BCCEC), believes crime has definitely had an effect on business and spending power. In fact, the BCCEC is prepared to release figures that point to the rise of crime in the business world and its effect on the economy.

"People want to shop in an environment that they are confident with and not put themselves in any kind of risk," he said.

He felt crime and consumer confidence have a "direct correlation".

While on the whole Forbes said people have a good sense of safety and well being, expectations for the economy remain low.

In another chart in the report, Forbes also drew a relationship between the drop in foreign arrivals and the rise in deviant behavior. With tourism moving in the direction of the country's GDP, quite simply, if people aren't coming to The Bahamas and spending money, it means there are fewer jobs for Bahamians. As of 2007, the report sites 4,600,000 total foreign arrivals and just under 12,000 incidents of crime. In 2008, that compares with 14,000 incidents and 4,400,000 foreign arrivals.

"Most of our employment comes from tourism, so that gives us a sense the economy is not doing well and people need more jobs," he added.

The COB professor highlighted the need for the government to create jobs, but also conceded that Bahamians must seek self-employment as a means to support themselves. The government doesn't need to necessarily hire people. However, it should endeavor to provide an environment to make employment and enterprise easier.

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