The currency game is not for the faint of heart

Thu, Sep 8th 2011, 10:08 AM

As the U.S. dollar continues to slide, and the euro remains unstable, global investors are starting to turn their heads and look elsewhere when it comes to currency exposure.
One haven in which investors are ducking cover is the Swiss franc.
In fact, the currency is skyrocketing as traders search for stability in volatile times, forcing its Central Bank on Tuesday to set a ceiling on its value.
However, this recent trend doesn't impress Kevin Burrows, the Senior Vice President at CFAL.
"Really, they say, for the most part, trading currencies is a mug's game," he said.
"It is very difficult to forecast the short-time direction of foreign currencies.  That said, because of the quantitative easing in the U.S., investors are fundamentally very concerned about all paper currencies. We are seeing a lot more interest in a defensive mechanism."
The strategy of buying Swiss francs has created its fair share of problems, Burrows pointed out.  The Swiss, known as exporters, are cognoscent that an inflated franc isn't good for business.  It also makes everything in the country particularly expensive for anyone not earning that currency.
"Switzerland is a small and very open economy.  Every second franc is earned abroad.  A massive overvaluation carries the risk of recession as well as deflationary developments," said Phillip Hildebrand, Chair of the Central Bank's governing board.
So with the safe haven in Switzerland getting a little crowded, should investors be seeking other currency opportunities?
Well, in Burrow's mind, the U.S. dollar is in a long-term decline.
Although China and other Asian currencies have resisted rising valuation for trade purposes, much to the disdain of the U.S., it is more or less inevitable that there will be a shift sooner rather than later.
"I don't think the U.S. dollar weakness will be as disorderly as it has been this week - it will level off," Burrows added.
"But most investors think it will gradually weaken, but not so much that it destroys the rationale of investing in U.S. assets."
Burrows said Scandinavian currencies, such as the Swedish krona or the Norwegian kroner are traditionally very stable places to park your cash.
They are certainly much safer than the euro, he explained.
"I think it has definite issues.  It has survival issues, frankly.  The German courts have approved the government's ability to finance the peripheral countries, but the euro is inherently not a stable construct and I think we're seeing the pressures starting to build."
With all of this in mind, Burrows said there are clearly some currencies that are more stable than others.  But generally speaking, even the most seasoned global investors take caution when it comes to playing the money game.  You can play a long-term view with success, he pointed out, but trading on a daily or weekly basis is "very difficult to do".
If you're really seeking a solid hedge, the best bet right now, Burrows said, is gold.
Flirting with nearly $1,900 per ounce, the precious metal is an excellent hedge against paper currencies, thus why its value has risen considerably over the past year or so.
"Gold is reasserting itself as the currency of last resort," he said.  "It has no central bank that can print unlimited amounts of gold to weaken it."

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