Dwight's Emmy predictions as television has become a Wild West of adventurous channels

Fri, Sep 16th 2016, 10:27 AM

This is truly a "Golden Age" for television.
We all know about the one that came before. But that one, it seems now, was more about an elegant, pioneering spirit, as opposed to the over-abundance of astounding quality productions that we are seeing today.
Nearly every network (and there are countless numbers of those now) has at least one outstanding signature series. Then, there are the outlets like Netflix and Amazon, which aren't networks at all, with their overflowing numbers of quality programs.

Unlike just two decades ago, it's practically impossible to watch all of the amazing television offerings today. As such, many of us have likely never even heard of -- let alone seen -- some of the shows nominated for Sunday's 68th Primetime Emmy Awards.

And for further proof of this plethora in quality, just look at the long list of stupendous programs minimally or not nominated at all this year. (It is simply unthinkable that HBO's "The Leftovers" is not on the list, or that CBS' "Mom" is not up for best comedy, or that ABC's "The Middle" is perennially overlooked.) But that's how great and competitive television has become, and what makes this past 2015-16 season one that will not be forgotten.

This year saw the end of one of TV's best-ever dramas, "The Good Wife". We saw that NBC's attempt to revive live-theater-on-television pay off -- not necessarily by or for NBC with its latest production, "The Wiz," but for competitors like FOX, which one-upped them with its surprisingly effective "Grease: LIVE".

But the biggest standouts this year were all limited series -- from ABC's consistently gritty "American Crime", History's "Roots" remake -- which actually managed to improve on the original, and FX's amazing "The People v. O.J. Simpson," quite possibly the year's single greatest achievement.

Of course, the Emmy Awards are unique. They're not quite like the Golden Globes, which, when it comes to television, are almost guaranteed to award anything and anyone new and unproven, and are apparently desperate to be seen as capable of spotting early trends. Nor are the Emmys like the Oscars, often driven by Hollywood politics, and often likely to reward those who have paid their dues after consistent hard work. Performers, especially, may not win for their very best work, but often for their body of work.

The Emmys, on the other hand, have favorites, and certain people and shows are likely to go on extensive winning streaks, while some people never ever win. At the same time, certain shows, on the air for years, are just now getting nominated, even after receiving every other industry award. The Emmys often continue to honor a show well past its prime, and also when a show has already been cancelled.

With more minority nominations than seemingly ever, look for diversity to rule this year. That's in sharp contrast to the Academy Awards, and a sign that television is a better place for women and minorities, compared to the movies. That abundance of nominations and possible wins by minorities this year would have nothing to do with affirmative action; just simply well-deserved and outstanding performances.

The Emmys, like the Grammys, feature seemingly hundreds of individual awards (there are actually nominations for "Outstanding Narrator" and "Outstanding Commercial"). So I'll seek to handicap just some of the nominations -- the main performance and program categories.

Next week, we'll see just how well I did with my picks! And you can email me your predictions at dwight@nasguard.com.

Outstanding Comedy
black-ish ABC
Master of None Netflix
Modern Family ABC
Silicon Valley HBO
Transparent Amazon
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt Netflix
Veep HBO

If there was any doubt that this is a whole new world for television, then take a gander at this list. There's only one traditional broadcast network represented here. And the one premium cable network only has two nominees, just as many as streaming service Netflix. Plus, we continue to see the rise of Amazon's Internet video on demand service as a content powerhouse. Things have certainly changed!

Except for snubs. We'll apparently always have those. The fantastic and ever-improving "Mom" should have been nominated. It is one of TV's bravest comedies, hilariously delving into the dark world of drug and alcohol abuse and addiction.

Regardless, the CBS show would not have won, as only one particular comedy has truly stood out this year. In its epic second season, nearly every episode of "black-ish" was a tiny masterpiece. The show dealt with some serious issues -- race and police brutality, gay marriage, the use of the N-word -- but all in a laugh-out loud manner, never just slightly amusing or in a way that would be uncomfortable.

The show has faced timeslot pressure in the last year and a half, as it's unfortunately up against FOX's blockbuster "Empire". But while that flashy show gets all the attention, the ABC show has only continued to improve, compared to its competition, which has been exceptionally uneven.

Whether it's the antics of the Johnson family, or the snippets featuring Dre's (Anthony Anderson) workplace, the show has been on fire.

That should be enough to knock last year's winner "Veep" off its perch, which is only just achieved by dethroning perennial winner (and "black-ish" timeslot partner) "Modern Family".

The dark horse could be "Transparent," but look for the Peabody Award-winning "black-ish" to make history as the first predominantly black cast sitcom to win this award since "The Cosby Show" in 1985.

Outstanding Drama
The Americans FX
Better Call Saul AMC
Downton Abbey PBS
Game of Thrones HBO
Homeland Showtime
House of Cards Netflix
Mr. Robot USA

While I'm still upset "The Leftovers" was left out, last year's winner, "Game of Thrones" is the best-produced program on television. It certainly deserves awards for even just the epic cinematic scale and scope of the production. Last year it won 12 awards alone, more than any series in a single year, and already has a record for most overall Emmy Award wins by a Drama Series.

The performances are always decent, and often award-worthy, and the storytelling and dialogue, often quite poetic. While not entirely perfect, it is an exceptionally well-rounded program. Another win here would not be a surprise.

But a couple other shows could be standing in its way. The most buzz-worthy right now is "Mr. Robot". However this thriller might be a little too out-there for Emmy voters.

The other is "The Americans," the Cold War spy-drama set in the 1980s. After four well-regarded seasons, the time may finally have come for this well-acted series to receive some Emmy love.

Outstanding Limited Series
American Crime ABC
Fargo FX
The Night Manager AMC
The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story FX
Roots History

The year's most exciting category; in a regular year, any one of these could have won. But this was no ordinary year.
Sadly, very few seem to be watching "American Crime". This year's edition of the anthology series delved into several deep and dark topics, including race, class, and, egad... male rape!

Another previously thought blasphemous proposition -- revisiting the groundbreaking miniseries "Roots" -- happened this year. Yet the world did not end! Instead, we were feted to a more mature and introspective, cinema-quality production, surpassing the original in many ways.

And fans of "Fargo" were shocked that the program they believed to be perfect, got even better than ever before.

Nevertheless, this year's most astounding production -- from beginning to end -- was the spellbinding "The People v. O.J. Simpson". If you were alive and aware in the 1990s, you probably thought you knew all there was to know about this case. Think again!

This year's most amazing performances all came from this 10-episode spectacle. Constantly surprising, this was the best television production of the year.

Anything less than a win here, would be highway robbery!

Outstanding Variety Talk
Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee Crucible
Jimmy Kimmel LIVE ABC
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver HBO
The Late Late Show with James Corden CBS
Real Time with Bill Maher HBO
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon NBC

Had this been last year, I would have said "Last Week Tonight" would be the winner in this category. But alas, the John Oliver show was not even nominated in its first year, in typical Emmy fashion.

The buzz now seems to be behind James Corden and his "carpool karaoke", and Jimmy Fallon who seems to be able to get his celebrity guests to do anything. Both shows are Internet and news media sensations. However, in the absence of the once category-dominant "The Daily Show," and with Stephen Colbert's first year as host of "The Late Show" being snubbed, look for perennial loser "Real Time with Bill Maher" (it's lost 10 times!!) to eke out a win. The show has been on fire in this election year. And finally, Maher may get his due.

Outstanding Variety Sketch
Documentary Now! IFC
Drunk History Comedy Central
Inside Amy Schumer Comedy Central
Key & Peele Comedy Central
Portlandia IFC
Saturday Night Live NBC

"Inside Amy Schumer" deservedly won this award last year. It wasn't as strong this year. But most of the other shows here, especially "SNL" were quite uneven.

Emmy voters might be inclined to go with the unique perspectives of "Documentary Now!" or "Drunk History". But this one could go any way.

Outstanding Variety Special
Adele Live in New York City NBC
Amy Schumer: Live At The Apollo HBO
The Kennedy Center Honors CBS
The Late Late Show Carpool Karaoke Prime Time Special CBS
Lemonade HBO

"The Kennedy Center Honors" is always a delight -- an amazing treat every year; "every year" being the operative words. This amazing cultural experience has won this equivalent award seven times.

That kind of familiarity doesn't stop the show at the Emmys. But if voters are inclined to do something new, look to the trendy "The Late Late Show Carpool Karaoke Prime Time Special" or possibly even Beyonce's "Lemonade."

Outstanding Special Class Program
The 73rd Annual Golden Globe Awards NBC
Grease: Live Fox
The Oscars ABC
Super Bowl 50 Halftime Show CBS
69th Annual Tony Awards CBS

One of these things is not like the others. And that alone allows a possible win for "Grease: Live." But that shockingly entertaining spectacle should also win based on merit. Grander in scale than what NBC has been doing with its live theatrical productions, "Grease: Live" was like nothing viewers have seen on television in many years.

Yes, there were some technical problems -- microphones and sound dropped for a bit, and it started to rain on the outdoor sets -- but it was nothing short of amazing, with great dancing and singing performances to boot. All of this proving that despite all comers, television is still the most exciting and dynamic medium around!

Outstanding Leading Actor Comedy
Anthony Anderson black-ish
Will Forte The Last Man On Earth
Aziz Ansari Master of None
William H. Macy Shameless
Thomas Middleditch Silicon Valley
Jeffrey Tambor Transparent

There are no bad options here, with strong performances all around. But look for Jeffrey Tambor to probably repeat his win from last year.

Outstanding Leading Actor Drama
Matthew Rhys The Americans
Bob Odenkirk Better Call Saul
Kyle Chandler Bloodline
Kevin Spacey House of Cards
Rami Malek Mr. Robot
Liev Schreiber Ray Donovan

In another category filled with great actors, this one is wide open now that last year's winner Jon Hamm ("Mad Men") and four-time winner Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") are no longer causing problems for the other contenders.

Oscar-winner Kevin Spacey has yet to win for his tour de force performance in "House of Cards" -- a role for which he's seemingly won every other industry award.  And Matthew Rhys and Bob Odenkirk are excellent on "The Americans" and "Better Call Saul", respectively.

But this year's Critic's Choice winner, Rami Malek, could be the big spoiler here. And while the bizarre show may be too much for a win in the best drama category, Emmy voters may reward its star, widely seen as the most compelling part of the whole production.

Outstanding Leading Actor Limited Series
Bryan Cranston All The Way
Idris Elba Luther
Tom Hiddleston The Night Manager
Courtney B. Vance The People v. O.J. Simpson
Cuba Gooding Jr. The People v. O.J. Simpson
Benedict Cumberbatch Sherlock: The Abominable Bride

No other category is blessed with so many previous Emmy, Golden Globe and Oscar winners. But this one is almost a no-brainer. The award has belonged to Courtney B. Vance from the moment he opened his mouth in "The People v. O.J. Simpson."

Vance doesn't so much play the late Johnnie Cochran, as much as he "becomes" Johnnie Cochran. It is possibly the most outstanding performance of the year, if not the decade. Case closed!

Outstanding Leading Actress Comedy
Tracee Ellis Ross black-ish
Laurie Metcalf Getting On
Lily Tomlin Grace and Frankie
Amy Schumer Inside Amy Schumer
Ellie Kemper Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Julia Louis-Dreyfus Veep

Perennial winner Julia Louis-Dreyfus has dominated this category in the last decade, winning five times since 2006 -- once for "The New Adventures of Old Christine", and four consecutive wins for "Veep." She won her first for Supporting Actress 20 years ago for "Seinfeld", and won another last year as Producer when "Veep" finally won for Comedy Series.
Clearly, Emmy loves Julia! Can she do it again this year? It's quite possible.

But don't count out Tracee Ellis Ross. She has been as essential and critical to the success of "black-ish" as Anthony Anderson. And the Emmys have a tradition of rewarding the actresses playing the long-suffering wives to the seemingly dominant male stars of sitcoms; from Jean Stapleton's three wins for "All in the Family" and Patricia Heaton's two for "Everybody Loves Raymond".

But this is a strong category. Look for this to go one of two ways: voters will either stick with tradition with Louis-Dreyfus or aim to blaze new trails with Ross or Ellie Kemper.

Outstanding Leading Actress Drama
Keri Russell The Americans
Taraji P. Henson Empire
Claire Danes Homeland
Robin Wright House Of Cards
Viola Davis How To Get Away With Murder
Tatiana Maslany Orphan Black

Everybody knew Viola Davis was going to win this award last year. She had to! She deserved to! But since then, her show "How To Get Away With Murder" has virtually collapsed.

What started out as a promising season became a crowded mess. And it seems it will take a miracle for the show to recover. Davis' performances have not been able to transcend the quagmire. In fact, for most of the year, she mostly seemed like a supporting player.

Another show teetering on the brink, "Empire," managed a minor late-season correction to get back on track. But before that, last year's probable Emmy runner-up, Taraji P. Henson, and her character Cookie was a shell of herself. Only towards the end of the year, did we see signs of the character we've come to love.

Will the issues with the programs hurt those actresses' chances? Possibly.

Keep your eyes on Keri Russell or Robin Wright. But look for Canadian actress Tatiana Maslany, who plays multiple characters on "Orphan Black" in what is seen as the performance of a lifetime to finally win.

Outstanding Leading Actress Limited Series
Felicity Huffman American Crime
Lili Taylor American Crime
Kerry Washington Confirmation
Kirsten Dunst Fargo
Audra McDonald Lady Day at Emerson's Bar & Grill
Sarah Paulson The People v. O.J. Simpson

Like Coutney B. Vance, Sarah Paulson had this in the bag from her first utterance on "The People v. O.J. Simpson." In the way Tina Fey will forever be linked to Sarah Palin, Paulson will now forever be Marcia Clark. All the women here did amazing work, but it's finally Sarah Paulson's year.

Outstanding Supporting Actor Comedy
Louie Anderson Baskets
Andre Braugher Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Keegan-Michael Key Key & Peele
Ty Burrell Modern Family
Tituss Burgess Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Tony Hale Veep
Matt Walsh Veep

Tony Hale won this last year. But honestly, this could go anyway, especially with Anderson or Burgess.

Outstanding Supporting Actor Drama
Jonathan Banks Better Call Saul
Ben Mendelsohn Bloodline
Peter Dinklage Game of Thrones
Kit Harington Game of Thrones
Michael Kelly House of Cards
Jon Voight Ray Donovan

Honestly, I have no idea what will happen here, except to say I'd be shocked if Harington won.

Outstanding Supporting Actress Comedy
Niecy Nash Getting On
Alison Janney Mom
Kate McKinnon Saturday Night Live
Judith Light Transparent
Gaby Hoffman Transparent
Anna Chlumsky Veep

Alison Janney has won this award every year that "Mom" has been on the air. She's fantastic on the show, but the sitcom as a whole is deserving of honor too. Is it because it's a traditional multi-camera comedy, why it hasn't been nominated yet?

In any event, the Emmys love to reward the same people repeatedly. So another Janney win is quite possible. And just one more, and she'll tie Cloris Leachman for the most wins ever by a performer (she's nominated twice this year, by the way).

Outstanding Supporting Actress Drama
Maura Tierney The Affair
Maggie Smith Downton Abbey
Lena Headey Game of Thrones
Emilia Clarke Game of Thrones
Maisie Williams Game of Thrones
Constance Zimmer UnREAL

Three "Game of Thrones" actresses nominated in one category! Ironically, all performances on that show this year (male or female) were overshadowed by the show itself, with possibly one exception --young Maisie Williams as the determined and put-upon Arya Stark.

Still, the body of work throughout the series by the amazing Lena Headey makes it unbelievable that she has not won an Emmy as yet, especially for her performances last season.

So I say Headley or possibly Williams, but don't count out the great Maggie Smith in this final season of the beloved "Downton Abbey".

Outstanding Supporting Actress Limited Series
Melissa Leo All The Way
Regina King American Crime
Sarah Paulson American Horror Story: Hotel
Kathy Bates American Horror Story: Hotel
Jean Smart Fargo
Olivia Colman The Night Manager

Regina King deservedly won an Emmy in this category last year for "American Crime." She's back playing a very different character for this wonderful anthology series, though her role was not as memorable this time around.

King should have instead been nominated for "The Leftovers". Particularly in that show's stunning season finale, King delivered a powerfully emotional, Emmy-worth performance. Otherwise, the competition is fierce here, with no losers in the bunch.

Dwight Strachan

Click here to read more at The Nassau Guardian

 Sponsored Ads