Department of Statistics officials during a press conference on Friday to release statistics on GDP for 2015. From left are Assistant Director Clarice Turnquest, Acting Director Leona Wilson and Assistant Director Nerissa Gibson. (Photo: Ahvia Campbell)
Despite the seemingly good news of nearly three percent growth year over year using current prices, the Department of Statistics (DOS) recorded negative growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) of The Bahamas for the second consecutive year in 2015. The Bahamas' GDP grew by -1.66 percent; that is to say, the country's GDP shrank by 1.66 percent from 2014 to 2015, after shrinking by 0.52 percent the previous year and marking the third consecutive contraction in "real" GDP.
The use of constant prices - in this case, prices as they stood in 2006 - is a standard among statisticians, used to better identify trends in an economy. It is to be noted that among statisticians, including those in The Bahamas' DOS, the "constant prices" measure is also called the "real" measure.
The DOS report on the 2015 GDP, issued on Friday, shows "real" GDP growth as 3.09 percent in 2012; 0.01 percent in 2013; -0.52 percent in 2014; and -1.66 percent in 2015.
In addition, according to the statistics, the size of the economy in real terms was $7.965 billion in 2012. In 2013, that number grew to $7.966 billion, but in 2014 it shrank to $7.924 billion, and again in 2015, it shrank to $7.792 billion.
Decline
The department reported that the decline in constant prices was due mainly to decreases in the construction, hotel mining and manufacturing industries, as well as financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) sectors of the economy.
Growth in the wholesale and retail trade, banking, real estate, business services and public administration and defense sectors mitigated the size of the decrease in real GDP growth.
Exports
"As it relates to our domestic exports, we've had a falling-off in terms of trends. Over the last couple of years, exports have gone down significantly. Actually, between 2014 and 2015, exports reduced by some 35.8 percent.
"Imports also, on the other hand, had a reduction of some 16.6 percent, so really we've been seeing a decline from 2014 to 2015 for both imports and exports. That would cover our major export commodities like salt, crawfish, chemicals - that kind of thing," DOS Assistant Director Clarice Turnquest said.
Second home construction
The statisticians were also able to certify the anecdotal evidence that construction dedicated to the second home market seems to be increasing.
Said Nerissa Gibson, also assistant director of the DOS: "Yes, we registered a growth in our residential construction sector, and it's as a result of those sorts of projects that have been going on continually over the last year."
Meanwhile, the construction sector, again using constant 2006 prices, fell from $830 million-plus in 2014 to just over $526 million, a sharp drop fueled by a steep decline in construction services imported (down nearly 65 percent) which led to shrinkage in the non-residential construction sector.
K. Quincy Parker
Guardian Business Editor
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