The margin in Jamaica's recent general election was razor thin. The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), led by Andrew Holness, has a one-seat majority in the House of Representatives over the People's National Party (PNP) led by outgoing Prime Minister Portia Simpson-Miller. The voter turnout was only 47.7 percent, the first time it had been under 50 percent, save for the 1983 election when the PNP did not contest the election in a protest over registration irregularities. It was a sham election.

According to the Jamaica Electoral Commission, in the 2007 general election, won by the JLP, 61.46 percent of voters cast ballots. In 2011 just over 50 percent of voters voted.

The PNP, which lost the government, saw a falloff of its base. There were a number of reasons for this, including an International Monetary Fund austerity program instituted by Simpson-Miller's administration. Neither the outgoing prime minister nor Holness inspired confidence among certain voters, depressed by the leadership choices. The lower voter turnout also likely had to do with a widespread lack of enthusiasm about the major parties and their leaders.

The generally popular Simpson-Miller and the PNP were widely expected to win. They came close to winning. Several seats were won by small margins, including one won by nine votes after a recount, giving the PNP an extra seat and making more vulnerable and potentially unstable a JLP administration, which likely will not last a full term.

Here at home, the lack of enthusiasm about the PLP and the FNM and their respective leaders, Perry Christie and Dr. Hubert Minnis, poses a quandary for many independent voters, disgusted by the state of the major parties. There is widespread disgust with the PLP's incompetence, corruption and arrogance. Christie's popularity has shrunk after many broken promises, the collapse of Baha Mar and economic anxiety and high rates of unemployment. But a dysfunctional and divided FNM and a lackluster leader have also failed to inspire confidence in independent voters seeking a viable alternative to the PLP.

While the FNM leader has fought tooth and nail to hang on politically, he has dramatically failed to appeal to potentially swing voters and has succeeded in alienating many long-time FNM supporters. Given the disdain with the PLP and after nearly four years with Minnis as leader, the FNM should be very concerned with how poorly the vast majority of swing voters appear to feel about the party and its leader.

Underwhelmed
A significant number of these voters may stay home, unexcited, unenthused and underwhelmed by Christie and Minnis and the paucity of ideas and vision for the country. They likely expect little from either party. We may be facing a base election, in which getting out core supporters will determine the outcome in a number of seats, with the possibility of electoral victory in these seats and in the overall election coming down to small margins.

PLP infighting and the heightened tensions between Christie and Deputy Leader Philip Brave Davis could cause problems for the party in terms of its coherence and strength as an electoral fighting force. Fallout from a contested leadership fight could have a spillover effect. But with a November convention, there may be no opportunity for Davis to mount a challenge.

Despite its internal and often bitter and nasty infighting, the PLP typically coheres as it prepares and enters into a general election contest, leaving differences at the side for the election season. Moreover, the PLP's base typically holds and the party floods various seats with an enormous amount of resources. There may also be favorable boundary cuts, which though they do not always work, can make a difference. It is the FNM which will have a significant problem with its base in the upcoming contest. Though he has entrenched his position in the party and with delegates, Minnis is the major cause for a widespread falloff in support for the party by its base.

Significant and critical numbers of FNMs, similar to the 2002 referendum and the 2012 general election, will not vote for an FNM headed by Minnis. The die is cast. There is likely nothing that Minnis can now do to attract those base supporters of the FNM who will not vote for him under any circumstances. The freefall of support he found himself in among base voters worsened and hardened after he got in bed with the widely politically loathed Tennyson Wells and connived with the former bitter and obnoxious FNM to bring Bamboo Town MP Renward Wells and Fort Charlotte MP Dr. Andre Rollins from the PLP into the FNM.

Senator Lanisha Rolle's ill-tempered and ill-advised comments assailing several FNM MPs and the comments by Tennyson Wells attacking Montagu MP Richard Lightbourn as a racist made already grievous matters depressingly worse. Neither Rolle nor Wells ever apologized for their comments, with many believing they had tacit support from Minnis for their divisive comments, which made Minnis and the FNM look only that much worse in the eyes of independent and base voters.

Unwillingness
Minnis' unwillingness to rebuke either of the attacks has caused him considerably more harm than he and his circle of advisors seem to realize. Among a large and growing swathe of FNM base voters there is revulsion at what is taking place in the FNM. It is a revulsion that will remain at election time.

Votes cast for the Democratic National Alliance and money will make the difference with small margins at play, similar to what happened in 2012. Minnis has had a difficult time raising money. Traditional financial backers in the FNM, exhausted by Minnis' leadership, are not giving much to the FNM, and are likely to give only token support if he remains as leader. Other potential donors do not view him and the FNM as either likely winners or as a viable alternative to the devil they already know.

The PLP will be flushed with money at the next election, the result of the legalization of the numbers business and other favors done by the party for various entities, who have a vested interest in the PLP remaining in power. If the FNM cannot motivate enough swing voters and its base, it is in for significant and perhaps insurmountable challenges at the upcoming election. Already the PLP has prepared a dossier on Minnis, of his gaffes and other items they have withheld for now. They will unleash holy hell on him as they desperately and viciously seek to hold on to power, turning off many voters in the process.

The decline in those voting in Jamaica, uninspired by either of the major parties and the party leaders, and unenthused by the country's prospects, may be a bellwether for The Bahamas, not simply in terms of who wins or loses, but in the struggle to gain the confidence of voters and to have a stable majority and the ability to move the country forward.

o frontporchguardian@gmail.com, www.bahamapundit.com.

Click here to read more at The Nassau Guardian