On a daily basis we read many good articles about issues in the Caribbean. In this first article we make an inventory of the trends we think Caribbean people have to watch, follow and make policy on. Why? Because these trends might have a significant impact on your income, job, health and life if you live on a Caribbean island.

The order is random and we discuss them here one by one. Know that they can all work simultaneously in the Caribbean. And they don't necessarily start in the Caribbean either: in many cases these trends are a variation of a global trend. In later articles this month we will elaborate on these trends.

Climate change
For many years it has been known that the sea level is rising. For example, the World Heritage Site Willemstad in Curacao in a few years will confront the enviable consequences if no measures are taken. Other related issues are trends of hurricanes, the extreme periods of dryness, followed by extreme rainfall. The United Nations for many years has worked to create awareness on these issues. Despite this, only a few island governments and NGOs are addressing the issue of climate change.

Oil prices
From nature we extract precious minerals and fuel for our Caribbean economies. But guess what: the prices have dropped from above $100 dollars a year ago to around half that price for a barrel of oil. This decline affects the Caribbean directly, as most Caribbean islands consume oil.

The incomes of the oil producing states will be affected directly; the resource curse continues. Also some Caribbean islands are dependent on foreign direct investment (FDI) and tourist arrivals from Russia and Venezuela, which at a lower oil price have trouble balancing their budgets. On top of that, the future of the Venezuelan PetroCaribe program remains uncertain.

China is one of the main importers of oil. The Chinese political and economic involvement in the world and in the Caribbean is relatively new and unknown but a potential game changer. The Chinese government sponsors big projects in the Caribbean such as hospitals, hotels, bridges, channels and roads and FDI from China is an important factor on the balance of payments of the Caribbean. But the way of doing business for China is different from the west and we do not know what the long-term effects will be. It is not only China getting more active in the Caribbean but also India and Russia.

Poverty
Despite increasing FDI and growing tourism sectors, poverty has been an issue on Caribbean islands. The global trend of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer is also reflected on the islands. With poverty there are high levels of youth unemployment and some people unable to acquire the right skills to earn a living in the economies of the islands.

Crime, drugs
With high levels of unemployment and increasing poverty amongst some neighborhoods in Caribbean islands comes drug trafficking. This is a fertile soil for transnational crime and gangs.

Financial markets
Many islands have diversified their economy by getting involved in the financial markets. In recent years the rich countries, led by President Obama, were determined to reduce tax evasion. This will result in a loss of income and jobs in this sector. In some islands we see a decline in the international financial business sector and this downward trend has been difficult to reverse.

Cuba
Another factor affecting the Caribbean is Cuba. When Cuba was closed most Caribbean islands were able to cater to the US market. The normalization of the relationships with the United States can result in a drop in tourist arrivals to Caribbean islands from the US. Caribbean islands can try to diversify their economies and target new markets for tourism.

Digitalization
The Internet has had a disruptive impact on most sectors in the global economy. The islands are becoming more digitalized but are they becoming smarter? More and more islands are changing their educational system to meet the challenges of the digital era. Also Caribbean governments can open their data and share it with their businesses so they can become more competitive in global and regional markets.

Logistics
Despite digitalization, physical goods must still be moved. This will remain a challenge for Caribbean islands, given the geographical, political and cultural divide.

Terrorism
We see new terrorism movements using the internet to get global attention for their cause. The global trend of terrorism sooner or later may come to the Caribbean. We hope that will not be the case.

Good governance and education
To reduce corruption and other negative trends, good governance and value-based education must become more important. Some Caribbean islands have put corporate governance laws in place, while others still have to start.

Demographic changes
We live longer. This trend has made the system of pensions unsustainable and the health care system very expensive, as more people consume more health care, while the social and health care premiums have to be paid by a young population. This is why the high youth unemployment mentioned before can be so disruptive. Many young citizens traditionally leave the islands, making matters worse.

Healthcare
Beside that, the elderly need more care, while we are faced by the threat of contagious diseases all over the world. For example Chikungunya and Ebola. These threats can also have negative effects on the tourism sector in the Caribbean.
How will your government, corporations and organizations face these challenges? What can you do as a policy advisor, manager, or small business owner?

On March 17, 18 and 19, 2015 these issues will be addressed in a free online conference on "The Future of the Caribbean" do not miss this opportunity. Get your seat for this conference on www.calmera.nl/future-caribbean and we will keep you informed.

o Miguel Goede is a strategist and trend watcher in the Caribbean. He is based in Curacao and works for governments, corporations and NGOs in the region.

o Runy Calmera is an economist, consultant, trainer and coach on economic analysis and policy for the 52 small island developing states (SIDS).

This article was published with permission from Caribbean News Now.

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