If you only watch your movies through “legal” means and you’re planning to watch the Oscars this Sunday, you are at a distinct disadvantage.

Of the 14 movies in the six major Academy Award categories this year, only four of these films played in wide release in this country. That’s just about 28.57 percent. Even here, that’s considered a failing grade! And it represents a decline from the 45 percent (five out of 11 movies) that played here in 2013.

Things look a little better in the Animated Feature Film category (three out of those five movies made it here.) And by now, some of the other movies are available on iTunes and similar on-demand or streaming media services. But in any event, unless you’re a download pirate (and I mean that in the most polite way) it’s likely that you and a good number of people in these parts won’t know much about the movies up for the major awards.

Despite these challenges, I once again will seek to predict the winners for Hollywood’s big night, specifically the four acting categories and the overall Best Picture. The sixth major category is Best Director. I won’t make a prediction on this one. But there are five nominees, and I think this is three-man race, between Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (“Birdman”), Wes Anderson, (“The Grand Budapest Hotel”), and Richard Linklater (“Boyhood”).

We’ll start with Best Picture, and then go through the easiest to predict categories (Best Supporting Actor and Best Actress) to the most unpredictable (Best Supporting Actress and Best Actor). I’ll tell you my personal favorite or what/who should win, and then what/who I believe is most likely to win. And next week, we’ll see just how well I did with my picks!

BEST PICTURE

American Sniper

Birdman

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

For the first time in the last few years, the Best Picture category is actually anybody’s guess. Last year, almost everybody knew “12 Years A Slave” would be victorious. This year it’s not quite as clear. It’s also not the most exciting crop of movies, especially when compared to 2013’s spectacular nominees (there really wasn’t a bad one in that bunch). Rather, the Class of 2014 is comprised of mostly small, independent or art-house films, with “American Sniper” — released late in 2014, and proving to be the first box office hit of 2015 — being the only one achieving “blockbuster” status.

That said, it is highly unlikely that “American Sniper” will win Best Picture. Neither will “Selma”. Both are well-crafted and emotionally compelling films, but against the competition, these two are the weaker links.

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” is imaginatively directed and beautifully filmed, and is the most playful and lively of these nominees. While it won this year’s Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy, it is probably too light to be taken seriously by Academy voters.

The two movies getting the strongest buzz have been “Boyhood” and “Birdman”. I have many serious issues with the former, which I feel has no business being nominated here. Yet, the film has captivated the film industry, and has won many major awards and accolades.

“Birdman” on the other hand was an enjoyable look at the struggles of a washed-up actor trying to remake his career and find himself. Hollywood likes films about itself, and movies about the movie industry often have success at the Academy Awards. For me though, the three standouts here are “The Imitation Game”, “The Theory of Everything”, and “Whiplash”. These well-executed and well-written tales — two of which (“Imitation” and “Theory”) are based on true stories — are also all exceptionally well acted.

Of the three, “Whiplash” is arguably the most unforgettable. Who would have thought that a movie about a drummer in a college jazz band would approach horror movie levels of intensity? It is shocking and captivating. Plus, it features some incredible music! What more could you ask for?

I will pray for an upset and that “Whiplash” takes the top prize. But if the trends we’ve been seeing this award season hold true, the extremely overrated “Boyhood” may eke out a win, with “Birdman” the most likely spoiler.

My personal favorite: “Whiplash”

What will win: “Boyhood”

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Robert Duvall (The Judge)

Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)

Edward Norton (Birdman)

Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)

J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

Okay, so we don’t need to spend much time discussing this category. And you can apply any clichéd saying here: “the writing is on the wall”, “it’s clearer than day”, and “even the blind can see”. J.K. Simmons will win the Oscar for “Whiplash”!

This performance is the most memorable of any performance in any category this year. As a demanding and driven jazz band teacher, Simmons is mind-blowingly intense, and could have (and should have) been nominated in the Lead Actor category. He could have won there too!

If Simmons had not been in this category, I would have said Edward Norton would get the win. He steals every scene he’s in with “Birdman”, with an amazing performance that reminds anyone who may have forgotten just how wonderful and still underrated is this low-key actor. But Simmons has won every major award for his role this year. And has this Oscar in the bag.

My personal favorite: J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”)

Who will win: J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”)

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night)

Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)

Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)

Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

This is another category in which the winner seems to be a foregone conclusion. And it appears Julianne Moore will finally win her Oscar. With Emmy Awards (Daytime and Primetime), Golden Globes (for TV and movies), and Screen Actor Guild Awards, the Oscar is the only major award that has eluded the talented Ms. Moore. “Still Alice” represents her fifth Oscar nomination, and after a stellar body of work, the consensus is that she is long overdue.

But it would be wrong to think she’d win just because she’s been winless. That would discount how incredible Moore is in “Still Alice”. As a relatively young woman facing early-onset Alzheimer’s disease, Moore effortlessly expresses the pain and frustration of such a condition. Even when she isn’t saying a word, she says so very much. She is at once subtle and yet forcefully powerful. In one word, “amazing!”

With the other nominees, Rosamund Pike had been my early favorite for her frenzied performance in “Gone Girl”. That was before the bombardment of all the “Oscar” films at the end of the year. Since then, some other performances have like cream risen to the top.

Felicity Jones was surprisingly powerful in “The Theory of Everything”, helping to catapult what could have easily ended up a supporting role into a commanding lead performance. Reese Witherspoon also delivers a tour de force in the quite entertaining “Wild”. In any other year, any of these women could have been walking up to the podium. But not this year! This year it’

Julianne Moore! Finally! And well deserved!

My personal favorite: Julianne Moore (“Still Alice “)

Who will win: Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”)

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

Laura Dern (Wild)

Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)

Emma Stone (Birdman)

Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)

First off, let’s say I love Emma Stone. She’s been good in everything I’ve seen with her so far. But I must admit I do not understand why she’s been nominated for an Oscar for “Birdman”. (The only nomination more surprising is Ethan Hawke’s supporting actor nod for “Boyhood”). Even Naomi Watts’ performance in “Birdman” was stronger, but still not exactly deserving of a nomination).

I also love Patricia Arquette. But I don’t get all the fuss with her “Boyhood” performance — although I agree hers is the best one in that entire movie.

Voters are likely to say that Meryl Streep (with three wins in 19 nominations — the most of any actor in history) has won enough Oscars, and this is certainly not her most memorable performance.

My pick would be Keira Knightley. She is wonderfully spirited as a code-breaker hired to decode Nazi secret communications during World War II in “The Imitation Game”. This is the very definition of a supporting performance; Knightley does not upstage her lead, Benedict Cumberbatch, and enhances her scenes with her mere presence. Like all the actors in this fine film, Knightley makes the most of the great dialogue in the lively script, which allows the cast to display their chops with many amusing and dramatic moments.

Nevertheless, it’s Arquette who has the momentum, and it appears that Sunday will be her night.

My personal favorite: Keira Knightley (“The Imitation Game”)

Who will win: Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”)

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)

Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)

Michael Keaton (Birdman)

Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)

This is the year’s most competitive category, with strong performances all around.

My least favorite performance is Steve Carell’s in “Foxcatcher”. Yes, Carell transforms himself physically in this role, with that weird prosthetic nose. He does an effective job of playing creepy millionaire John du Pont. But the film is so unsettlingly dour and bleak that it’s hard to say one enjoyed the performance.

Bradley Cooper and Benedict Cumberbatch both deliver solid performances. And many others have won awards for doing far less.

But ultimately, I believe the real race comes down to two people. “Birdman” seems made for Michael Keaton. Like his character, Riggan Thomson, Keaton was once a giant blockbuster movie star, who’s seen his film roles diminish in recent years. He pours his heart into this one, and has already been well rewarded for it so far.

The only person standing in Keaton’s path toward an Oscar is Eddie Redmayne. The British actor delivers a spectacular turn as genius Stephen Hawking. Redmayne is able to excite the viewer whether he’s discussing scientific theories or when dealing with the debilitating and life-threatening disorder (ALS) that will forever change Hawking’s life. Redmayne pulls us along through all the ups and downs, and transforms himself physically (without makeup or special effects) as Hawking’s illness takes toll, continuing to amaze us, even when Hawking is no longer able to speak.

So, it comes down to the two men who won this year’s Golden Globes — Keaton for Comedy and Redmayne for Drama. It could go any way. But I think because of the emotional impact, Redmayne has the slight edge.

My personal favorite: Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”)

Who will win: Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”)

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