This month will mark the halfway point of the most recent Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) term in office. Perry Christie, at 71, has been the PLP's leader for 17 consecutive years. He has led the party to two election wins, losing the 2007 poll in-between.
Christie has been in frontline politics for 40 years and has many critics inside and outside of his party. He has been called weak, indecisive and afraid of conflict and controversy.
These terms can be heard regularly on talk radio. They can be seen in the newspapers. But as we survey the political landscape halfway home to the next general election, another term may be better suited to describe the veteran politician: unbeatable.
How it ended in 2012
Christie's PLP took 29 seats in the May 2012 general election. The PLP gained one after the North Abaco by-election. The three-way race between the PLP, Free National Movement (FNM) and Democratic National Alliance (DNA) kept the PLP from securing a majority of the votes cast (48.6 percent), however. The FNM's haul (42.1 percent) combined with that of the DNA (8.5 percent) surpassed the PLP. In our first-past-the post system, the FNM was only able to win nine seats and the DNA none.
Hubert Ingraham, the man who led the FNM into the 2012 election, resigned shortly after his party's defeat. The FNM selected Dr. Hubert Minnis, the Killarney MP, to replace him.
Minnis is not a good communicator. He doesn't have the natural instincts of a political leader. He also looks uncertain on major matters of policy - take for example his multiple positions on gambling and the gender equality referendum. Right-thinking Bahamians would agree that the FNM has not gained ground under Minnis.
It's harder to assess the DNA's trajectory since we last voted.
The party is essentially two things: a New Providence-based protest movement against the rule of the PLP and FNM; and, a vehicle for Branville McCartney's ambition to be prime minister.
We have a crime problem; failing public schools; an illegal immigration problem; a bloated and inefficient public service. These challenges have persisted for years under both major political parties. There are many Bahamians who want a new type of leadership, with new ideas. For some of these people, the DNA is a sign of hope. It would seem reasonable to suggest that the DNA is still a factor in our politics and may be able to win somewhere between six and 15 percent of the vote.
The split opposition and the Christie path to reelection
In our parliamentary system, it does not matter what percentage of the vote parties receive. What is important is winning the majority of seats in the elected chamber and being able to form a government. With two opposition parties, Christie and the PLP can afford to fall off from where they were in 2012 and remain in power.
Let's use the Golden Isles constituency, a swing seat, as an example. Michael Halkitis won with 2,220 votes, defeating Charles Maynard (now deceased), who secured 1,813 votes. The DNA's candidate, Farrell Goff, received 581 votes. In percentage terms Halkitis received 48.1 percent, Maynard 39.3 percent, and Goff 12.6 percent of the votes cast.
An uninspired FNM led by Minnis would fall off from the 2012 total it received under Ingraham. A DNA believed to be a better option would rise. Imagine this scenario at the 2017 general election in Golden Isles. The PLP's candidate drops to 42 percent of the vote. The FNM's candidate drops to 35 percent of the vote, and the DNA's candidate rises to 23 percent. While nearly 60 percent of voters would vote against the PLP, its candidate would still win the seat.
Such scenarios could play out across the swing seats of New Providence - poor FNM leadership driving voters frustrated with the PLP to the third party. The DNA could again win no seats, but this time with a higher percentage of the vote. The large combined opposition vote in this scenario indicates that the FNM would win these types of seat if it were the only opponent to the PLP.
For Christie, his easy path to victory is a poor FNM leader combined with the presence of the DNA. It is in Christie's best interest for Minnis to defeat Loretta Butler-Turner at the FNM convention on November 21.
Perfectly timed jobs
The $3.5 billion Baha Mar Project is expected to open in 2015 in stages. The resort will employ thousands. This version of Baha Mar was negotiated by the FNM, but the PLP will be in power when it opens, reaping the better economic times it is expected to bring.
The other recently announced good news for the PLP comes from downtown. China Construction America (CCA) purchased the British Colonial Hilton property and land to its west in heart of the Downtown Nassau. CCA is a subsidiary of the largest construction company in the world, China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC).
CCA will develop the vacant property to create a luxury hotel and condominium unit. The hotel will also include a multi-storied garage with rooftop garden and banquet rooms, a high-end retail shopping center, restaurants, gym, marina, movie theater and boardwalk.
The investment is expected to create 250 construction jobs and 500 permanent jobs for Bahamians. An additional 500 jobs in the amenities and commercial components will be created, according to the prime minister.
This project is expected to start next year and should run through 2016.
Further major construction could occur downtown if the government satisfies the demands of the Bahamian owners of the old shipping properties, leading to the erection of medium-rise condos where these shippers formerly were.
Another win?
Come the next general election Christie could be at the center of a perfect reelection storm. A weak and divided opposition and falling unemployment would make it easier for the prime minister to win again. Let's also not forget that the PLP legalized web shops. The numbers men should donate generously to the party's reelection effort.
There are barriers, though, that can stand in Christie's way. There is no guarantee that Minnis will defeat Butler-Turner. She is a more marketable candidate for the FNM than the good doctor. A win by her could reenergize the slumping official opposition.
The other major roadblock is value-added tax (VAT). The new tax is scheduled to come into effect on January 1 at 7.5 percent. The cost of living for Bahamians will go up. Will consumer spending significantly fall off? Will there be job losses? We won't know until early next year.
Then there are the party's missteps in governance.
Christie and the PLP stumbled through the gambling referendum and the legalization of web shops. They are stumbling through the gender equality referendum process. The prime minister has had to fire three of his new generation MPs (Renward Wells, Dr. Andre Rollins and Greg Moss). We had the worst summer in recent memory with blackouts thanks to the Bahamas Electricity Corporation (BEC). Crime is still a problem.
But despite all this, all in all, things are lining up for the PLP leader. Ingraham and Sir Lynden Pindling were able to win back-to-back terms in their political careers. Christie thus far has not. In winning the next general election he would join his mentor and friend in this regard. Christie would also tie Ingraham in having won three general elections.
As mixed-up as Christie may appear at times, I wouldn't count him out. The conditions are ripe for the boy from Centreville to win one more before heading off into his political sunset.
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