There is a single defining issue before the FNM at its upcoming convention: Who is the best person to lead the party's return to office? It is the question of electability, which all political parties in a democracy face.
If the FNM gets wrong its choice for leader, it may not return to office until 2022 at the earliest. With the right leader, an electorate hungry for leadership may well reward the FNM, indeed quite handsomely.
The drift of some voters to the DNA is driven largely by the current lack of appeal of the major parties. The right leader of the FNM can help to stem and reverse this drift.
In the U.S., Bill Clinton energized and made electable a Democratic party which was out of the White House for 12 years. In the UK, Tony Blair brought Labour back to office after four electoral defeats by the Tories.
The major political parties at home have also faced the electability question. In 1977, came the great split in the FNM, resulting in two opposition factions one with the FNM name and the other as the BDP.
Divided and dispirited, the opposition forces were handily beaten in the 1977 general election. The PLP garnered 54.7 percent of the popular vote and 30 seats. The BDP got 26.9 percent of the popular vote and six seats, while the FNM got two seats and 15.6 percent of the popular vote, for a combined total of 42.55 percent.
The seeds for the reunification of the opposition were planted on election night over a round of beers. The PLP won Delaporte, carrying more votes than the opposition's combined tally.
Still, many thought that a united opposition may have carried the seat, considering its vote and the number of voters who stayed home or disaffected to a united PLP. Five years later in 1982, the FNM won the seat.

Oddest
On election night 1977 as the results came in, the opposition's two opposing and losing candidates in Delaporte, Sir Arthur Foulkes of the BDP and Bazel Nicolls of the FNM, started talking reunification over a round of beers at Sir Arthur's headquarters on Crawford Street.
This picture of two opposing candidates listening to results of an election they both knew they had lost was one of the oddest occurrences in Bahamian politics and set the stage for an extraordinary sequence of statesmanlike decisions in Bahamian politics.
The opposition's turmoil continued after 1977, with another split resulting in the formation of the Social Democratic Party, headed by Norman Solomon, becoming the Official Opposition for a period.
Meanwhile talks initiated by Foulkes and Nicolls continued between the BDP and the FNM factions, with reunification coming in time for the 1982 general election. The party now had to decide on the best person to lead it into the election.
That decision was made at a meeting at the home of the party's founding father and leader, Sir Cecil Wallace-Whitfield. The question was which individual could best unite the party and improve its electoral fortunes. Sir Cecil readily agreed to step aside in favor of Sir Kendal Isaacs.
Sir Kendal was highly intelligent and articulate. He understood our parliamentary system and was an effective voice inside and outside of Parliament.
Given his mild-mannered nature some thought of him as a conservative by nature. His record proved that he was fundamentally very much a progressive. He was a leader of the cooperative movement and an economic moderate. He was broadly liberal in his thinking on a range of social, economic and political matters.
He was also incorruptible, a stark contrast to Sir Lynden and the PLP. Whether they were inclined to vote PLP or FNM, most people thought that Sir Kendal had the intellectual depth and ability to serve as prime minister.
He famously repeated the well-known aphorism that, "Politics is the art of the possible." He unified the FNM, making it more appealing. In 1982, the FNM jumped to 11 seats, and by 1987, the number jumped to 16.
The 1987 general election is thought to have been one of the most fraudulent since the beginning of party politics in the country. The irregularities were widespread, including a compromised register of voters.
Having failed to run a candidate in St. Anne's, the Opposition may have opened itself up to one of the greatest floating ballot operations in a Bahamian general election.

Responsibility
There are many convinced that the FNM won in 1987, with Sir Kendal as leader. Still, he took responsibility for the defeat and stepped down. This saw the return of Sir Cecil as leader.
Even as far back as 1972, with the PLP at the height of its power, the opposition received 40 percent of the vote, a base that has only grown since then.
The major parties have their base, which may be somewhat comparable in terms of percentages. To be elected to office, they must maintain that base and reach enough swing or independent voters.
It seems that the PLP's base is more likely to come out and hold at a general election, with more of the FNM's base prone to staying home when dissatisfied, as appeared to be the case at the Elizabeth by-election.
For the FNM to regain office, it must strengthen and build its base while attracting a majority of independent voters and those giving the DNA a look over.
Bill Clinton's election team had a sign up in his campaign war room: "It's the economy, stupid." The mantra for the FNM is, "Electability, electability, electability", going with who is best suited to rally the party to electoral victory. The PLP has often been better on this front, with a strategic and single-minded focus on winning office.
To improve its electability, the FNM must provide a set of policy options to address crime, the economy, immigration and a host of issues. It will need to present an attractive slate of candidates, including more females. It must especially attract younger voters and women.
But, foremost, the party must have a leader who can articulate the party's values and policies, someone who will attract younger voters and those eyeing the DNA, and someone whom Bahamians believe can do the job of prime minister.
The FNM stands a good chance of being elected in 2017. But it will squander that opportunity and grab defeat from the jaws of victory if it goes to the polls with the wrong leader.
Victory or defeat at the next general election is in the hands of the delegates at the upcoming convention. They will decide whether the party moves forward, or stagnates and moves backward.
In deciding the question of who is the best person to lead the FNM's return to office, a prior question to help answer the ultimate one, is: "Who would the PLP prefer to run against?"
FNMs should choose the candidate in the November 21 contest of whom the PLP is most afraid.

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