Dear Editor,
The most popular politician in The Bahamas today is estranged Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) MP Dr. Andre Rollins. If Rollins was looking to achieve his 15 seconds of fame by openly defying Prime Minister Perry Christie, he has accomplished it.
Judging from his scathing anti-PLP rhetoric in Parliament and calls from several PLP politicians for his resignation from Parliament, it is safe to say that Rollins' relationship with Christie and Co. has become strained and acrimonious. Rollins' popularity has soared to rock stardom among opposition supporters, which is due to his anti-PLP rantings.
There have been rumors on Facebook of the Free National Movement (FNM) and Democratic National Alliance (DNA) leaders politicking for his membership in their respective parties. This rumor has also been published in a tabloid. Everybody is waiting with baited breath to see what will be Rollins' next move.
If Rollins decides to join one of the two main opposition parties, I am of the view that the DNA has the slight edge over the FNM for one glaring reason: Rollins' seeming inability to get along with FNM leader Dr. Hubert Minnis and Deputy Leader Loretta Butler-Turner.
I cannot envisage Rollins as an FNM rendering deference to either Minnis or Butler-Turner or following FNM protocol. Recall that it was in June 2013 that Butler-Turner slapped Rollins in the House of Assembly after he allegedly whispered into her ear. Whatever he said to her, she obviously took grave offense to it.
Also recall that Rollins went off on a tangent at Minnis over some unsavory allegations regarding sexuality which were forwarded to a tabloid newspaper. I believe it was Leader of Government Business in the House of Assembly Dr. Bernard Nottage who intervened in the back-and-forth between Minnis and Rollins by adjoining the House of Assembly for a recess in order to diffuse the explosive situation.
Notwithstanding FNM Chairman Darron Cash's informal invitation to the embattled PLP MP to join the FNM, Rollins' contentious past with the FNM leadership in the House of Assembly is hard to dismiss or ignore. Of course, in today's political landscape, anything is possible. FNMs must exercise caution by not holding their collective breaths for Rollins to join their party. This is a scenario I just don't see happening.
Another scenario I don't see happening is Rollins remaining with the PLP, where he is clearly now a marked man. To many PLP hardliners, Rollins crossed the boundary by publicly calling into question Christie's leadership of the country. He had already stomped on his political coffin by opposing two bills in the constitutional amendment.
I think Rollins must surely appreciate the fact that he will not receive another PLP nomination. Even if he mends fences with Christie and the hierarchy of the government party and is nominated, it is not a given that the majority of PLP grassroots in Fort Charlotte would support him in 2017. Many PLP hardliners now see Rollins as an outsider and turncoat, who was only able to get into Parliament because Christie chose to leapfrog him over other potential PLP nominees who had been in the trenches for years.
Bear in mind that it was as recently as 2010 when Rollins contested the Elizabeth by-election as a standard bearer for his now defunct National Development Party against the PLP's Ryan Pinder and the FNM's Dr. Duane Sands. PLP hardliners are well aware of what the PLP has done for Rollins. Put bluntly, if he runs as a PLP in 2017, he will be crushed. And so Rollins now faces a fork in the road.
He can either become an independent or a DNA. Both options are not viable for a man seeking to extend his parliamentary career. Few independent candidates have been successful at the polls. Those fortunate to win were aided by the two major political parties when they chose not to run their candidates.
For example, in the 2002 general election, the PLP didn't field a candidate in Bamboo Town against then former FNM-turned-independent incumbent Tennyson Wells, who had a falling-out with Hubert Ingraham and the FNM. The PLP employed the same strategy that year in St. Margaret, with the view of assisting Pierre Dupuch against the FNM's Loretta Butler-Turner.
Also, the PLP did the same thing in Long Island when it stayed out of that contest against Larry Cartwright and the late FNM James Knowles. If Rollins runs as an independent, it will be to his own peril, as one can be certain that both the PLP and FNM will field candidates.
In the event Rollins joins the DNA, he must surely be aware of the Bahamian historic political landscape being strewn with the corpses of many third political parties which have failed to break through the clutter to success. The Bahamas Democratic Movement, the National Development Party, the Coalition for Democratic Reform, the Vanguard Party, the Workers Party, the Social Democratic Party, the Bahamas National Party, the Poor Powerful Peoples Party and the Labour Party are some of the minor political parties which are now all defunct.
Fort Charlotte is a PLP stronghold. Rollins' predecessor was Alfred Sears, who first won Fort Charlotte in 2002 after besting the FNM's Zhivargo Laing. Laing was MP in that area between 1997 and 2002. He defeated prominent PLP businessman and fundraiser Franklin Wilson in 1997. Sears represented Fort Charlotte for 10 years. He stepped down in 2012, making way for the young Rollins.
I say all that to say this: the PLP has won Fort Charlotte in 1992, 2002, 2007 and 2012. That's four victories in five contests. PLP political strategists are well aware of this. They know that their party could have won without Rollins. They also know that whomever they field in that area against an independent or DNA Rollins will either win or place second behind an FNM candidate.
In the final analysis, Fort Charlotte will either go to the PLP or the FNM. Rollins' possible defection to the DNA will have no bearing on the outcome of the contest in Fort Charlotte. Him joining the DNA will not hurt the PLP or the FNM. FNMs in 2017 will not again flirt with the DNA, as many of them who voted DNA in 2012 are now deeply regretting their decision. The DNA will not play spoiler in that race, as it did in 2012 when its candidate and former chairman Mark Humes got an impressive 519 votes. Laing got 1,973 votes - a mere 152 votes less than the 2,125 votes Rollins got. Had it not been for the DNA, Laing would have been the current MP for Fort Charlotte and nobody would have been discussing Rollins.
Perhaps even more annoying to the FNM is the fact that Humes is no longer an active member of the DNA, as he was asked to resign his chairmanship post in 2013 due to his inactivity. And so the outcome of that contest was immensely influenced by a man who may no longer have any interest for politics.
PLPs will not vote for Rollins, as many of them are peeved at him for his anti-PLP antics. They see him as one who is trying to wreck their party and the Christie administration. And so the talks of Rollins' possible defection to the DNA and its possible impact on the two major political parties are overblown.
- Kevin Evans

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